Floating Futures
Alessandro Gandolfi

Imagine a city where suburbs float on water. Floating homes already exist in coastal communities in places like the Philippines and Vietnam. Now, high-income nations facing dangerous sea-level rise are looking to those examples.

Among them is the Netherlands, where over a quarter of the land is below sea level and around two-thirds of it is at risk of flooding.

This photograph shows floating houses in the IJburg district at the edge of Amsterdam, the largest Dutch city. The image comes from , a new series by photojournalist Alessandro Gandolfi.

The affluent, relatively high-density IJburg community comprises 158 waterside homes, 55 of which are floating. Residents are connected by bridges and roads, and most houses have a boat outside instead of a car.

Simply raising the dykes is no longer enough against the rising waters, Gandolfi writes in his photo essay. “Experts warn that mastering water’s whims is an illusion. The answer, they say, lies in a shift of mindset – the philosophy of meebewegen: not fighting against water, but learning to live with it.”

The homes at IJburg aren’t houseboats or retrofitted vessels like the ones lining Amsterdam’s canals, but architect-designed homes intended to encourage community living. They are built to be sustainable, with rooftop solar panels and careful management of sewage and other waste.

But their biggest difference from other houses will always lie below, in their watery foundations.

The world is likely to overshoot 1.5°C of warming within the next few years, a by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) acknowledges. However, it says it is still possible to cool the planet back down to this level by the end of the century. Can it really be done? It isn’t impossible, but it certainly isn’t the most likely outcome.

The goal of limiting the increase in the average global surface temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels looked implausible even back in 2015, when it was adopted as part of the Paris Agreement. The UNEP report can be seen as an “official” acknowledgment of what many have been saying for years: that it is now certain that we are going to blast right past this limit.

But some aren’t giving up on the target. There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C, says at UNEP. “Even if we exceed 1.5, let’s be very clear: that 1.5 target is still the goal. But now we need to approach it differently, from above.”

Much of the report looks at the consequences of overshooting 1.5°C and the need for adaptation to cope with the severe impacts this will bring. “We will see increased food insecurity, increased water insecurity, impacts on human health – physical and mental – danger to our homes and our infrastructure,” says at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, one of the authors of the report. “This will lead to the loss of livelihoods and certainly lives.”

The world isn’t prepared for overshooting 1.5°C, she says. “Therefore we have to advance our adaptation and development strategies to deal with those higher levels of warming, the greater range of risks and impacts… Adaptation needs to be transformational to allow us to plan for a changing world.”

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There will be no going back to how things were, says Roberts. “Some losses will be irreversible, which means returning to 1.5 doesn’t mean we return back to the same world we left.”

But what exactly should we be preparing for? The report focuses on a scenario in which rapid emissions cuts and massive-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere result in a return to 1.5°C of warming by the end of the century.

But achieving this would require limiting temperature rises to no more than 1.8°C, says Roberts. Beyond this, there will be cascading effects from all the irreversible changes that make it much harder.

However, restricting warming to this level requires a halving of global emissions by 2035, says report author at Imperial College London. That seems highly unlikely given that emissions are still rising worldwide.

In addition to emissions cuts, the scenario envisaged in the report also requires carbon removal on a truly gigantic scale – enough not just to balance out hard-to-tackle emission sources, such as farming, and achieve net zero, but to go well beyond that to remove around 10 gigatonnes of CO2 each year. That compares with current emissions of around 40 gigatonnes.

This means scaling up carbon removal by a factor of around 100,000, says at ETH Zurich in Switzerland, who wasn’t involved in the report. Cheap forms of carbon removal, such as planting forests, can’t be scaled up this much because there isn’t enough land. Direct air capture could be scaled up, but it is really expensive, he says.

Knutti thinks achieving this is technically and financially possible, but not politically plausible. “We should be honest when we talk to policy-makers and the public that this is not the thing to plan for,” he says. “I think the plan should be to adapt for at least 2 degrees, if not more.”

at the University of Exeter in the UK is even less optimistic. “There are still no credible plans for large-scale carbon dioxide removal,” he says. “Human societies must adapt and prepare for a warmer and more dangerous world that will persist potentially for centuries.”

, also at ETH Zurich, points out that among , only two imply a return to 1.5°C before 2150. The scenario based on current policies suggests warming of around 3°C by 2100.

Until recently, overshooting and returning to 1.5°C was no more than a scientific thought experiment, says at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Now it could become the “official” plan B for 1.5°C. “The overshoot concept may turn out to be no more than a way to mask ongoing failure,” he says.

But even if getting the temperature back down to 1.5°C isn’t likely, we have to try, says Weber. “We have to give it a shot. There’s no real alternative.”

“Now is the time to double down on climate action, not to give up on it,” says Andersen. “Every fraction of a degree avoided, every year by which overshoot is shortened and every adaptation action taken will save lives, protect ecosystems and reduce economic losses.”

The UK’s dry, hot and sunny summer has provisionally entered the record books as the hottest season for the country since records began in 1884.

The average temperature for the months of June, July and August was 16.5°C (61.7°F), the national weather service, the Met Office, said on 1 September, blowing through the previous summer record of 16.1°C (61°F)  set just last year.

“The conditions we’ve seen this summer have broken UK climate records once again,” said at the Met Office in a statement.

Summer in the UK began with the second warmest June on record, followed by the second-warmest July. But the heat remained almost constant throughout the three-month period, with 38°C (100.4°F) recorded for the first time in June in Norfolk, and 38.1°C (100.6°F) recorded at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.

Much of England is now in the grip of a severe drought after rainfall vanished from many parts of the country during July. The hot, dry conditions have damaged crops, strained healthcare systems and triggered severe wildfires.

Fossil fuel emissions fuelled the high temperatures, with climate change making a summer like 2026 around 130 times more likely to occur, the Met Office said.

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“In a climate unaffected by human emissions of greenhouse gases, a summer like this would be exceptionally unlikely, i.e. 1 in over 1,000 years,” at the Met Office said in a statement. “In our current climate, which is changing because of the effect of burning of fossil fuels, we should now expect this to be roughly a 1 in 9 year event.”

The top five warmest summers for the UK have all occurred since 2003. This trend will only intensify in the future as rising global temperatures cause summers in the UK to be increasingly hot and dry. Under 4°C of warming, the summer just gone would be considered cool or below average for the UK, the Met Office said.

In response to the announcement, at the World Wildlife Fund said in a statement: “These stark figures prove what we have been experiencing first hand, we are getting hotter and hotter. And the climate will continue to heat up until we cut our emissions to net zero.”

A super El Niño that is gathering strength in the Pacific Ocean may have been made worse by climate change, according to new analysis of coral records that suggest El Niños have become more intense as global temperatures have climbed.

The impacts of El Niño – droughts, floods and storms – are already exacerbated by rising global temperatures, because a warmer atmosphere intensifies both rainfall and droughts.

But scientists have long struggled to untangle the effect of climate change on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which drives El Niño events. Part of the difficulty is that detailed observational records only began in the 1980s. A much longer timescale than that is needed to tease out a trend from natural variability.

at the University of Michigan and her colleagues hope corals can provide the answer. They collected living and dead corals from around the Galapagos Islands in the eastern Pacific ocean, where El Niños first develop.

They used uranium and thorium dating to identify the age of the corals, then analysed the chemistry of their skeletons to track changes to sea temperatures during their lifetime. In that way, they built a time series of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific spanning the past 1000 years.

El Niño and La Niña events are measured by changes to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, so by building this time series, Cole and her colleagues could track the fluctuating ENSO cycle through the centuries.

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“The chemistry of the coral skeleton preserves a record of the environment in which it grew, and certain aspects of the chemistry are especially sensitive to temperature changes,” says Cole.

The team found that, over the past 40 years, variability in the ENSO cycle has increased by 36.5 per cent compared with the pre-industrial period. This increase in variability has been driven largely by more intense El Niño events, the analysis found.

The corals collected by the team covered about half the 1000-year time period. Nevertheless, Cole is confident in the overall trend identified. “I think we show pretty clearly that the increase in variability in ENSO is tracking global temperature closely,” she says.

Super El Niño could lead to mega CO2 emissions from fires in Indonesia

Intense fires are already burning in Indonesia, and there could be much worse to come as the Super El Niño ramps up

The findings add to an that suggests the ENSO cycle is changing in response to rising temperatures. “The evidence is better than 50-50 that climate change is affecting El Niño,” says at Columbia University in New York, used tree ring data to identify an increase in El Niño activity in recent years.

Although the research does not include the recent El Niños in 2015, 2023 and 2026, Cole says they are consistent with the trend identified by the corals. When the current El Niño peaks at the end of this year, sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean are projected to reach 4°C above normal, a 60 per cent increase over the old record.

at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agrees. “If the current El Niño turns out to be as strong as we expect, that past decade will have witnessed three major El Niños – a sequence not seen before in the instrumental record dating back to the late 19th century,” he says. “It will add to the mounting evidence that climate change is amplifying the ENSO cycle… which is a concern considering the far-reaching global impacts that ENSO has on humans and natural systems.”

Picture the world 100 or 200 years from now. What are you imagining? Hotter temperatures, melting glaciers or alpine places without snow? With heatwaves happening across Europe this summer, it’s not that hard to visualise.

Now picture Europe in a deep freeze where temperatures hit -20°C in London. Both of these scenarios might be the future we’re heading for, thanks to climate change. And there’s an even more worrying indicator: while almost the entire planet has been warming, there’s one patch in the North Atlantic Ocean just south of Greenland where temperatures have been falling.

Scientists call it the “cold blob”, and some think it could be a warning that one of Earth’s most important climate systems is beginning to change and may soon hit a tipping point where climate change no longer happens gradually. If this system flips, it could have devastating consequences that change all of our lives as we know them.