No women in England aged 20 to 24 died of cervical cancer between 2020 and 2024. This is the first time that zero cervical-cancer deaths have been recorded for this age group, and it’s thanks to the introduction of a vaccine against the human papillomavirus, or HPV.

“The results are stunning,” says at Queen Mary University of London. “It’s an awful thing when somebody dies very young from cervical cancer. This is a real triumph for vaccination, a real triumph for science and a real triumph for public health to get that vaccine out there with very high uptake very rapidly.”

HPV is spread by several kinds of sexual activity, and many strains genetically modify cells in a way that is extremely likely to cause cancer. Women can get cervical cancer in their twenties because of the virus, and around the world many are still dying because of it.

The first HPV vaccine became available in 2006. In the UK, it has been offered to girls aged 12 or 13 since 2008. It’s been offered to boys since 2019, both to protect them from other HPV-triggered cancers – like those affecting the mouth, anus, throat and penis – and to prevent them from infecting others.

The study is the first evidence that the HPV vaccine prevents cervical-cancer-related deaths, in addition to dramatically reducing HPV infections and . It may seem obvious that it prevents deaths, but we know that the women who are least likely to get vaccinated are also the least likely to go for screening, says Sasieni. So, there was a worry that the vaccine has mainly been preventing cancers that would have been detected early by screening and successfully treated, but not preventing those that would get missed by screening and therefore be more likely to kill women.

Fortunately, . Sasieni and his colleague , also at Queen Mary, have been monitoring cervical-cancer rates and deaths in England, and noticed that between 2020 and 2024 – the most recent data available – there were no deaths among women aged 20 to 24. Based on historical rates, around 23 deaths would be expected. “As far back as I’ve seen data, there’s never been a year with none, and so five years in a row with no deaths is really quite something,” says Sasieni.

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The dramatic drop is almost certainly due to the HPV vaccine – around 90 per cent of women in England aged 20 to 24 were vaccinated when they were 12 or 13. “This hugely encouraging news shows the life-saving impact of the HPV vaccine, and it’s incredibly exciting to be able to say to this whole generation: cervical cancer and some other cancers shouldn’t be a risk for you,” says , director of vaccination for the National Health Service (NHS) in England.

While this study looked only at cervical cancer, the benefits of this vaccine also apply to other HPV-related cancers. It should also protect against warts on the skin and genital and anal areas in both sexes.

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Sasieni and Falcaro note that there were some deaths among women aged 25 to 29, but far fewer than would be expected. Altogether, they estimate around 200 lives have already been saved, and this is just the start. “The 200 which we’ve estimated in the paper is really just the tip of the iceberg, because it looks like there’s long-term protection against infection,” says Sasieni. “In the future, 18,000 deaths might be a rough estimate of what we’re preventing so far.”

Worldwide, however, uptake of the HPV vaccine is low and the rate of cervical cancer is still rising. Death rates may also rise in the UK because fewer teenagers are getting vaccinated. “The bad news is that the vaccine uptake has fallen quite dramatically since covid,” says Sasieni.

“Alongside cervical screening, HPV vaccination is central to the NHS ambition to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040,” says Temmink. “It’s a safe and effective vaccine and we urge everyone eligible to take up the offer when invited.”

It was roughly a year after the earliest cases of covid-19 before the first vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were ready for roll-out. By then millions had died worldwide and economies were devastated. In the advent of a bird flu pandemic, we will be able to react more rapidly, because we should have an mRNA vaccine already approved and ready to go. A phase III trial of such a vaccine is now getting under way in the UK and the US.

“A flu pandemic is the most likely future pandemic. And it’s really critical that we ensure we’re properly prepared,” says at the UK Health Security Agency.

The main threat is a strain of H5N1 bird flu called clade 2.3.4.4b. It has spread globally in wild birds since evolving around a decade ago, even reaching the Antarctic. Many wild mammals have been infected by wild birds and it has often spread to poultry farms. In the US, it has been circulating in dairy cattle.

There have been more than 100 human cases since 2024, although so far there is no evidence of the virus spreading from person to person. But as long as H5N1 bird flu keeps circulating, the risk will remain.

“We cannot predict the timing or the severity of the next pandemic. However, with continued circulation of influenza viruses in animal populations, and the potential for virus adaptation, preparedness remains essential,” says at Moderna.

The company’s mRNA-1018 vaccine against H5N1 bird flu has already undergone phase I and II trials, with no safety concerns found. Now a phase III trial that will involve 3000 volunteers in the UK and 1000 in the US is starting.

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Normally trials measure the effectiveness of vaccines directly, but since H5N1 bird flu isn’t spreading among people, the trial will instead look at the strength of the immune response in the volunteers. The results of the earlier trials suggest the vaccine evokes a strong response, says Hiruy.

The trial is prioritising people aged over 65 and people who work with poultry, as they are most at risk from bird flu.

Some countries do already have stockpiles of conventional vaccines against H5N1 bird flu. For instance, . But this existing vaccine is made using chicken eggs, like many vaccines against the seasonal flus circulating in people. With this technique, it is very difficult to rapidly scale up production or make changes to the vaccine if viruses evolve significantly.

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By contrast, mRNA vaccine production can be rapidly scaled up and it’s very easy to change the vaccine should that prove necessary. So mRNA vaccines have major advantages when it comes to pandemic preparation, says Pebody.

The trial is (CEPI), which is backed by more than 30 countries and other organisations. CEPI stepped in after the US government cut funding for mRNA vaccines.

Countries such as and the US may also roll out H5N1 vaccines for farm animals, especially poultry. This approach has long been used in some other countries, with a study in France finding that vaccinating ducks dramatically reduced H5N1 outbreaks on farms.