鈥淗ARBOUR Grace is a pretty place, and so is Peeley鈥檚 Island,鈥� goes an old
Newfoundland song. 鈥淒addy鈥檚 going to buy me a brand new dress when the boys
gets home from swilin鈥�.鈥� Swilin鈥� 鈥� the spring hunt for young seals on the sea
ice 鈥� used to be one of the few ways Newfoundland fishermen could earn the
extra cash for a daughter鈥檚 dress.
This year, it is the only way many of them will earn any money at all. In
1992, the Grand Banks fishery, the region鈥檚 main employer, closed after the
cod stocks were destroyed by overfishing (鈥淭he cod that disappeared鈥�, 16
September 1995, p 24). In a desperate attempt to find jobs for
Newfoundlanders, Canada is subsidising and enlarging the seal hunt. About now,
the seals will be congregating on ice floes to give birth. In two weeks, when
the pups have moulted, they are fair game. Fishermen are getting their clubs
ready for the biggest legal slaughter of wildlife in the world, apart from
fishing itself.
No one would bother if it weren鈥檛 for the subsidies. Markets for seal
products have collapsed, wrecked by public outrage over pictures of bloodied
baby seals spread around the world by animal rights campaigners. But the
subsidies aren鈥檛 just intended to create a few thousand poorly paid jobs. The
Canadian government insists that killing seals is the only way to bring back
the cod fishery. Government scientists say seals eat vast amounts of cod and
are hampering their recovery. Scientists outside the government call that
nonsense. They say killing seals is just as likely to deplete cod stocks still
further. And they charge that the government鈥檚 seal science has been distorted
for political reasons, while any government scientist who refuses to toe the
official line is gagged.
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The Newfoundland seal hunt killed 250 000 seals a year early this century,
then 300 000 after 1945. Seal numbers fell, including harp seals, the most
common species and the one that produces the white-coated pups. In 1983 Canada
set a yearly hunting limit on harp seals of 186 000. But that same year, under
pressure from anti-culling campaigns, the European Community banned the import
of products made from seals under a year old. Fur markets died. In 1987 Canada
evicted the Norwegian factory boats which had been taking most of the seals,
and banned the killing of white-coated pups in an effort to salvage the hunt鈥檚
image. But the price of a pelt fell from C$40 (拢20) to C$9
and the cull reached a low of 27 000 animals in 1993.
Then the collapse of the fishery threw 30 000 Newfoundlanders out of work.
The province called 鈥淭he Rock鈥� has few other jobs to offer 鈥� and a government
relief package worth C$1.9 billion will run out in a few years. What to
do?
In 1994 Canadian fisheries minister Brian Tobin decided to boost the
sealing industry. The Canadian and Newfoundland governments started paying a
subsidy of C$0.66 per kilogram of seal meat. Last spring only a late
freeze that kept boats in port limited the catch to 61 000 seals. The Canadian
Sealers鈥� Association, an industry lobby group supported in part by the
Canadian fisheries ministry, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO),
redoubled its efforts to drum up markets.
MORALE-BOOSTER
This was a popular move with fishermen. It was good for their pockets 鈥�
they could earn a bit of money, though profits were still very low. And it was
also good for their morale 鈥� the hunt suited the widespread belief that
killing seals would rid the fishing industry of a ravenous competitor. 鈥淣o one
blames seals for the collapse of the fish stocks,鈥� says Tina Fagan of the
Canadian Sealers鈥� Association. 鈥淭hat was overfishing. But seals eat fish. The
cod won鈥檛 recover unless more seals are taken out of the system.鈥� Last
December, Tobin raised the harp seal quota to 250 000, saying there was one
major reason the cod weren鈥檛 recovering: 鈥淗is first name is harp, and his
last name is seal.鈥�
The DFO provided the scientific rationale. Garry Stenson of the DFO Science
Branch in St John鈥檚, Newfoundland, calculates that the harp seal population in
the northwest Atlantic grew from 2 million in 1980, to 4.8 million in 1994.
Their total prey consumption grew from 3.6 to 6.9 million tonnes and would
increase since the herd was growing at 5 per cent per year.
The stomach contents of killed harp seals show that cod only makes up three
to five per cent of their diet, Stenson says. But this would still account for
up to 142 000 tonnes of cod in waters near Newfoundland in 1994, about the
size of the last commercial cod quota. Moreover, says Stenson, seals eat cod
too small for commercial fishing. So they take more fish per tonne than
fishermen. The conclusion for the DFO is obvious. 鈥淗arp seals are one of the
factors impeding groundfish stocks rebuilding,鈥� it says in its home page on
the World Wide Web.
But there are three things wrong with that conclusion, say scientists
outside the DFO. One is the accuracy of the DFO鈥檚 estimates both of the size
of the seal herd, and of how much cod it eats. The second, more telling
problem is that seals are just a tiny part of a complex marine ecosystem so,
no matter how much fish they eat, there is no guarantee that culling seals
will increase cod stocks. The third is direct evidence, from the DFO itself,
that seals are not affecting the recovery of the cod.
Peter Meisenheimer, a fisheries biologist working for the International
Marine Mammal Association, a conservation group based in Ontario, says 鈥淭he
harp seal population has probably increased, because hunting has fallen. But
the DFO cannot say with certainty by how much.鈥� The DFO鈥檚 methodology for
counting seals, a notoriously difficult task at best, has differed from year
to year, says David Lavigne, a seal biologist at the University of Guelph,
Ontario. He says this makes it impossible to compare counts from different
years, and find trends. 鈥淭hey simply haven鈥檛 spent the money required to do a
proper job,鈥� says Meisenheimer.
IN FROM THE COLD
To make matters worse unusually cold offshore waters have driven more seals
inshore in recent years. Such changes in distribution make it trickier to
extrapolate from samples to total populations. It also fuels popular
perceptions among fishermen that 鈥渢here are an awful lot of seals out there鈥�,
says Fagan. But there is no proof that the seal population is growing at 5 per
cent per year, says Meisenheimer. 鈥淭he DFO uses this number without mentioning
that it is the highest of a range of estimates based on old information, not
an empirical measure of the present situation.鈥� Harp seals are having fewer
young and later pregnancies, and are thin, says Lavigne 鈥� all signs that the
herd is not growing rapidly, 鈥渂ut reaching its carrying capacity and
蝉迟补产颈濒颈蝉颈苍驳鈥�.
In addition, says Meisenheimer, the DFO鈥檚 estimate of the amount of cod in
the seals鈥� diets is based mainly on data taken in years when there was a
commercial fishery. The proportion is likely to be higher then than now, as
seals eat discards from nets when they can get them. One study by the DFO
found large amounts of cod in seals鈥� stomachs when there were trawlers about,
but none when the boats were gone. Seals are especially unlikely to be eating
much cod since it has now almost disappeared. They are far more likely to
switch to something that is easier to find, says Lavigne.
MEALS FOR SEALS
Stenson is aware of the limitations of his data. 鈥淪tudies are currently
being conducted to improve our knowledge of both the diet and distribution of
harp seals,鈥� he wrote for the DFO last year. 鈥淯ntil they are completed, these
estimates of consumption should be considered preliminary and used with
肠补耻迟颈辞苍.鈥�
But if the DFO鈥檚 scientists see a need for caution, its policy-makers do
not. Jean-Eudes Hache麓, a senior DFO fisheries manager, defends the
increased seal hunt. 鈥淚t is established that harp seals eat large amounts of
cod,鈥� he says. 鈥淗ow many of these young cod would survive to maturity if they
were not eaten by harp seals?鈥�
But that is precisely the question the DFO is not addressing, says Lavigne.
Cod have other predators and some of these also make a good meal for seals.
鈥淲hat else are the seals eating,鈥� asks Lavigne, 鈥渁nd what impact does that
have?鈥� The DFO鈥檚 sealing model, he complains, is of limited scientific value,
as it can give only one answer: seals eat cod, so seals reduce cod stocks.
鈥淏ut seals also eat animals that eat cod,鈥� he says. 鈥淲hich is more important?
Canada hasn鈥檛 even begun to do the type of multispecies assessment you need to
predict the impact of killing seals.鈥�
South Africa did its homework in 1991, he says, when it wanted to kill Cape
fur seals to boost commercial hake stocks off Namibia. 鈥淪outh Africa asked an
international group of scientists to consider the issue,鈥� says Lavigne. 鈥淲e
decided we needed a minimally complex model 鈥� one that contains enough
features of the ecosystem that it isn鈥檛 obvious what the answer will be until
you actually run it.鈥� The Namibian model included the seals鈥� impact on
commercial hake and on a non-commercial species of hake that preys on the
commercial variety. Seals eat both. The scientists concluded that killing
seals was more likely to harm than to help the fishery, because seals ate more
of the predatory species. South Africa called off the hunt.
The same relationship may exist between harp seals and cod. Illex squid eat
young cod. Seals eat squid. Meisenheimer says a simple calculation, based on
the DFO鈥檚 figures for the different animals鈥� population sizes and feeding
rates, shows that, for every seal killed, extra cod do survive. 鈥淏ut depending
on the assumptions you make about seal feeding rates, squid death rates, and
the like,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢he seal can rescue even more cod by eating squid. Under
some conditions, a live seal can cause a hundred times more cod to survive
than a dead one.鈥�
Meisenheimer emphasises that this is not a firm scientific analysis, but an
illustration of principle. 鈥淭he DFO is using similar calculations to justify
the seal hunt, except they haven鈥檛 even considered the most basic complexities
in the system, such as the impact of seals on predators. Including that can
give you a completely different answer.鈥�
Lavigne says it is 鈥渆xtremely naive to think we can tinker with the complex
food web in the oceans, tweak one thing 鈥� seals 鈥� and have the result we
want鈥�. He points to failed efforts to boost certain populations on land by
killing their predators. Spanish hunters kill the Iberian lynx in the hope of
boosting the rabbit population. But scientists reported last year that there
are five to ten times as many rabbits in areas they share with the lynx, than
in lynx-free areas: lynx also eat mongoose, which eat rabbits.
But oversimplified predator-prey models are only one problem with Canada鈥檚
case for killing seals. Equally damning is the DFO鈥檚 own research which shows
no evidence of seals hampering the recovery of cod stocks. Ransom Myers, of
the DFO Science Branch in St John鈥檚, reviewed data on 128 fish stocks
worldwide that had been fished to very low levels. He was looking for evidence
that the recovery rate for these stocks might be slowed by a decreased
survival rate of young fish, perhaps because of increased predation. But no
such effect showed up in 125 of the stocks, including Atlantic cod, Baltic
cod, and every other example of fish similar to cod.
Jeff Hutchings, a fisheries biologist at Dalhousie University in Nova
Scotia, says that seal populations around Newfoundland have increased since
1980, but the DFO鈥檚 own survey data show no parallel increase in cod deaths in
the age group eaten by seals. 鈥淲e have no idea what percentage of the young
cod seals are killing,鈥� adds Hutchings. 鈥淚f this is not significant compared
with other causes of death, he says, then killing seals will have little
effect on fish stocks.
In December, the International Society for Marine Mammalogists stated that
鈥淎ll scientific efforts to find an effect of seal predation on Canadian
groundfish stocks have failed to show any impact 鈥� the evidence indicates
that stocks will recover, and killing seals will not speed that process.鈥�
Some DFO scientists agree with that statement off the record. But they fear
losing their jobs if they say so openly. They are told not to talk to the
public about cod, or seals. Do it once and, they are reprimanded 鈥� do it again
and they can be sacked. This year DFO scientists pleaded, secretly, with their
bosses not to say the seal hunt was based on science. They were ignored. 鈥淭he
tragedy is that science is being used as a tool to justify a political
decision. And scientists who disagree are muzzled,鈥� says Hutchings.
JOBS FOR THE BOYS
But in Newfoundland, the only tragedy that matters is the economic future.
It is bleak. Before, fishing employed too many fishermen to chase too few
fish 鈥� so even if it recovers, it should provide a third as many jobs as
before. What will everyone else do? Some people think the government could
create more jobs by investing in something other than dead seals. Boosting the
seal hunt is at best a partial solution, as no one thinks the market will
expand that much. But it has provided work for one Newfoundlander. Last month
Tobin resigned as Canadian fisheries minister and became premier of
Newfoundland virtually without opposition. One big reason for his popularity
is the seal hunt.
Newfoundland is not the only place where sealing is popular. The hunt for
grey seals in Scotland stopped in 1979, but fishermen are clamouring to start
again. They say the seal herd eats large amounts of commercial fish. The Sea
Mammal Research Unit in Cambridge disagrees. Fishermen admitted killing seals
illegally in Orkney in October.
Norway never stopped killing harp and hooded seals, though the hunt
dwindled to a mere three boats last year as markets died. In an effort to
revive it, Norway will end a seven-year ban on killing pups this year. It told
the European Parliament in January that it kills seals because they 鈥渃ompete
with us for fish鈥�.
But nowhere is the seal hunt as massive as the one now planned in
Newfoundland. The tragedy for Newfoundlanders is that it could further
unbalance an already impoverished marine ecosystem. And once again, the
culprit will be, not seals, but political mismanagement in the name of
science.
Flipper pie, anyone?
The size of Canada鈥檚 seal hunt depends on whether sealers can sell what
they catch. That used to depend on the number of pelts the Carino Company of
Dildo, Newfoundland 鈥� a subsidiary of the Norwegian firm Rieber 鈥� would buy.
This year it says the market, largely in Asia, has grown to 230 000 pelts. Now
new markets are appearing, says Tina Fagan of the Canadian Sealers鈥�
Association.
The oil rendered from seal blubber is rich in omega-3 fatty acids, a
popular health food supplement. Newfoundland sells seal oil capsules in China
and Japan, and is applying to sell them in Canada. But Vernon Thomas of the
University of Guelph in Ontario has doubts about the market. He says fish are
a more economic source of omega-3 fatty acids, and less contaminated with
pollutants such as PCBs, while the World Trade Organisation may take a dim
view of a product that will have to be developed with the help of extensive
government subsidies.
Seal meat is already subsidised by Canada. At the Canadian Food and
Beverage Show in Toronto in February, the Sealers鈥� Association displayed seal
salami, pepperoni, sausages, vacuum-packed prime cuts, stew, canned meat, and
even an old Newfoundland delicacy 鈥� flipper pie. The rest of the seal ends up
as pet food, says Fagan.
Animal rights鈥� activists maintain that the only seal product profitable
enough to make the hunt worthwhile is their penises, an aphrodisiac according
to the Chinese. A dried, beribboned seal penis fetches upwards of $100
in Far Eastern markets, and in Canada鈥檚 fast-growing communities of Hong Kong
Chinese.
Fagan denies promoting penises. But the harvest of adults, as opposed to
immature seals, jumped from 20 to 65 per cent of the catch between 1993 and
1994. Male carcasses fetch higher prices than female ones. Exporting seal
penises is illegal in Canada. But the International Fund for Animal Welfare
believes that dealers 鈥済et around that by selling them with the seal still
补迟迟补肠丑别诲.鈥�