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The world could warm by a catastrophic 6 °C by 2100—or by as little
as 1 °C, says the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, replacing
earlier forecasts of a 1.5 to 3.5 °C warming. First reported in New
Scientist last year (18 September 1999, p 5), the radical recalculation has
now been included in the latest draft of the IPCC’s assessment of climate
change, due for publication next May. The biggest unknown is how fast technology
to reduce emissions can be developed, says the head of the team behind the
recalculation, Nebojsa Nakicenovic.