SOME Antipodeans just canāt seem to accept that England won the rugby union World Cup. Hugh Morton, a statistician at Massey University in New Zealand, says his analysis of all 48 games shows that ā surprise, surprise ā his countryās own team, the All Blacks, was really the best performer, followed by Australiaās Wallabies, with the English coming in third.
Mortonās system for allocating points is strikingly different to the one used for the official rankings. Instead of giving a flat four points for a win, his system takes into account a variety of factors, such as whether a win was narrow or large, and whether the team beat a top-ranked opponent or a low-rated team. If a team plays badly in a match, it may even lose points accumulated in previous games.
If youāre English, youāre probably thinking that this is a wonderful example of a pointless exercise ā itās the team that wins on the day that matters. But donāt tell the Australians that. Stories about statistics donāt make headlines too often, but the local media were quick to seize on these results. āStats boffin has news for Englandā, ran a gleeful headline on Fox Sports Australiaās website.
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But Morton believes he might even have been a little too generous to the side that came second in the cup, after beating the All Blacks in the semi-finals. āBecause all games were played in Australia, they benefited from a home advantage, whereas all others were away games. Arguably, the rating for Australia should be reduced,ā he says ā giving New Zealand an even clearer lead.
