NEVADA鈥橲 Yucca mountain, the chosen site for a massive nuclear waste repository, may be a bit safer than previously thought.
In 2005, the US Department of Energy (DoE) estimated the odds of a volcanic eruption at Yucca mountain in the next 10,000 years at about 1.6 in 10,000, making it a small but legitimate concern. Surveys of the area are incomplete, however, prompting a warning from researchers later that year that the DoE may be underestimating the risk by a factor of 10 to 100.
Now Tom Parsons of the US Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California, says the risk might be even lower than DoE predictions. Using a 3D computer model of the Earth鈥檚 crust in the region, he found that volcanic activity should concentrate to the north and south of the mountain, near the ends of the area鈥檚 three major faults (Geology, vol 34, p 785). 鈥淭he proposed repository lies between faults,鈥� says Parsons. 鈥淎s long as those faults remain active, magmatism will probably stay away from [Yucca Mountain].鈥�
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He says other models overestimate the risk because they concentrate on the frequency of eruption, rather than the location.
