First the good news: estimates of HIV prevalence in India have halved. The bad news is that between 2 and 3.1 million Indians are infected with HIV. Not quite the 5.7 million estimated before, but still a hefty burden.
鈥淲hile it鈥檚 good news that the total number of HIV infections is lower than previously thought, we can鈥檛 be complacent,鈥� says Naresh Dayal, chairman of India鈥檚 National AIDS Control Board.
Released in New Delhi on 6 July by the National AIDS Control Organization (NACO), the show that HIV affects about 0.36 per cent of India鈥檚 1 billion citizens. This compares well with the previous estimate of 0.9 per cent, which was based on data from around 700 鈥渟entinel sites鈥�, such as antenatal clinics, sexually transmitted disease clinics and centres used by intravenous drug users and other groups at extra risk of infection.
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The new estimate was calculated using data from an expanded network of 1100 sentinel sites, a national health survey of 100,000 individuals, and a behavioural study that looked at HIV transmission among high-risk groups.
Armed with the more accurate figure, NACO has launched a new to target treatment and prevention efforts more effectively. At present, antiretroviral treatments are only reaching 10 to 15 per cent of those who need them, for example.
鈥淔rom the sentinel site data, they鈥檝e identified about 20 HIV 鈥榟otspots鈥� previously thought to be low-prevalence areas,鈥� says Peter Ghys of UNAIDS. For example, the southern state of Andhra Pradesh has now been identified as having almost one-fifth of the country鈥檚 HIV cases, despite making up just 5 per cent of the population. 鈥淣ow they can target resources with more precision,鈥� says Ghys.
鈥淭hey have identified 20 HIV 鈥榟otspots鈥� previously thought to be low-prevalence areas鈥�
The figures also show that in some high-burden areas, such as Tamil Nadu in the south, HIV prevalence has begun to stabilise or decline.
