The chances of powerful Atlantic hurricanes barrelling into the US during the 2007 season are much greater than usual, a new report suggests.
The European Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium predicts five tropical storm strikes on the US, including two hurricanes during 2007. It also forecasts 17 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of those being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.
鈥淏ased on current and projected signals, TSR鈥檚 March forecast predicts Atlantic basin and US-landfalling hurricane activity to be about 75% higher this year, compared to the average levels between 1950 and 2006. This forecast has increased from the 60% rise predicted in TSR鈥檚 forecast in December 2006.
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The London, UK-based consortium of experts in insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting say this is the highest March forecast of activity since TSR began forecasting 1984.
El Ni帽o dissipation
The consortium predicts an 86% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, including two tropical storms hitting the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, one of which is expected to be of hurricane-strength.
鈥淭he El Ni帽o conditions present since September 2006 dissipated rapidly during February,鈥� explains TSR鈥檚 lead scientist Mark Saunders, at University College London in the UK. 鈥淭he sudden El Ni帽o dissipation is the main reason for the TSR forecast for hurricane activity in 2007 rising.鈥�
The deadly 2005 season produced a record 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes, seven of them intense. They included ), which swept westward across Florida before smashing into New Orleans on 29 August 2005. It was also the costliest hurricane season, with damage estimated at more than $100 billion.
