Iran showed footage of missiles on Wednesday that it warns could reach Israel and US bases in the Middle East, but military analysts said the damage they could wreak was limited and not enough to deter any would-be attacker.
Iran鈥檚 real ability to hit back against any US or Israeli strike may lie in less conventional tactics than a missile salvo, the analysts say.
The Islamic Republic鈥檚 Revolutionary Guards test-fired nine long- and medium-range missiles and said they were ready to retaliate if the country鈥檚 foes launched military strikes over its disputed nuclear activities, state media reported.
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The televised display of its firepower appeared designed to demonstrate for the world and ordinary Iranians that it could and would respond to any attack.
鈥淭his is the Iranians saying: 鈥榃e can match you if it comes to that鈥�,鈥� said Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank in London, UK.
But, he added, the 鈥減ossession of some rockets鈥� was not going to stop Israel from going ahead if it felt it must bomb Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear arms.
Pointing problems
Defence analyst Paul Beaver said Iran鈥檚 missile programme was fairly advanced but that it still needed to get accuracy and guidance systems right for long distances. 鈥淭hey are some way away yet from threatening Israel or US bases,鈥� he said.
Speculation that Israel could strike Iran has mounted since its air force staged an exercise last month that US officials said involved 100 aircraft. The US has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear row.
Iran may fire the missiles if it were attacked but its 鈥渞eal strength lies elsewhere鈥�, said Pieter Wezeman, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Hit-and-run attacks
Analysts say Iran could employ unconventional or 鈥渁symmetric鈥� methods to strike back, for example against US forces in Iraq and by disrupting crude supplies vital for the world economy with hit-and-run attacks against oil tankers.
Israel, believed to be the Middle East鈥檚 only nuclear-armed power, has vowed to prevent Iran from building an atomic bomb.
Iran, the world鈥檚 fourth largest oil producer, insists its nuclear ambitions are purely directed at generating electricity.
The state Press TV said the 鈥渉ighly advanced鈥� missiles tested included a 鈥渘ew鈥� Shahab 3 missile, which officials have said could reach targets 2000 km away. Iran has previously said Israel and US bases are in its range.
Brookes said he did not believe Israel could attack Iran on its own because of the distances involved and its dispersed nuclear sites, but he made clear Iran鈥檚 arsenal of missiles would not be a key factor for decision-makers in Jerusalem.
Limited payload
鈥淎 few missiles dropping is neither here nor there in the calculus,鈥� Brookes said by telephone from London.
An aide to Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader was quoted as saying on Tuesday that his country would hit Tel Aviv, US shipping in the Gulf and US interests in reply to any military strike.
But Wezeman said he did not believe that Iran had many Shahab 3 missiles in stock or that they could cause major destruction.
Iran鈥檚 military says it has thousands of missiles lined up against pre-determined targets, but does not give a breakdown.
Wezeman said the missiles were not that accurate and also carried a limited payload: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it is really going to impress Israel that much as long as they (Iranians) use conventional warheads,鈥� he said.
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