George W Bush flew into Europe on Tuesday after giving the first hints at how he would like to replace the Kyoto Protocol with a more 鈥渟cientific鈥� agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
In a statement from the White House on Monday, he accepted the conclusions of a report from the US National Academy of Sciences published last week that global warming was real and was happening. But he stressed the remaining scientific uncertainties.
鈥淲e do not yet know how much effect natural fluctuations in climate may have had on warming. We do not know how much our climate could, or will change in future. We do not know how fast change will occur, or even how some of our actions could impact it,鈥� he said.
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And he repeated his March statement, which so annoyed European leaders, that the Kyoto Protocol was 鈥渇atally flawed鈥�. Its targets were 鈥渁rbitrary鈥� and 鈥渘ot based on science鈥�, he said.
Stabilising gases
Global warming and the future of the protocol are likely to be the main topics when Bush drops in on European Union leaders on Thursday, during their summit in Goteberg, Sweden.
Behind the defiant tone of opposition to the protocol, Bush set out three basic principles that should guide future agreements. In a clear effort to establish a scientific base, he said: 鈥淥ur approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.鈥�
But he added: 鈥淲e must act to ensure continued economic growth for our citizens, and for citizens throughout the world.鈥� And he continued to insist that, from the start, developing nations such as China and India must accept limits on their emissions.
Bush鈥檚 statement also promised new funding for scientific research to fill gaps in knowledge and boost technological solutions. But it pointedly failed to acknowledge the existence of the UN鈥檚 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the cornerstone of international climate research for the past decade.
Legally binding
Bush has promised that his government will attend climate negotiations in Bonn at the end of July. European environment ministers have signalled their willingness to reconsider detail, but only on condition that any agreement continues to include legally binding targets for reducing the emissions of industrialised nations.
Briefings in Washington suggest Bush will only accept voluntary targets. But on Monday, Senate majority leader Tom Dasche, a Democrat, backed mandatory targets.
Meanwhile, in President Bush鈥檚 home state of Texas, the first tropical storm of the season has killed 16 and caused an estimated billion dollars of damage. Nobody tried to blame it on global warming, but it underlined the deadly and costly threat to society posed by changes in the weather.
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