AUSTRALIA has a bush fire policy of 鈥渟tay and defend, or leave early鈥�. A century of data suggests that people more often die fleeing fires than fighting them, and that most houses are set alight by ember-strikes, which are much easier to fight than an advancing wall of flame.
Only a detailed analysis will show whether the policy made sense in this year鈥檚 horrific fires (see 鈥淐limate scientists had warned of Australian bushfires鈥�). But one flaw is already emerging: people are not taught to prepare themselves psychologically for the onslaught of a fire. Many died fleeing, apparently having decided to stay but then losing their nerve.
Much effort has gone into dealing with the psychological aftermath of disasters. We need psychological preparedness too, and not just in Australia but also in other fire-prone regions such as southern California.
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