A REVOLUTION is under way in the US that will affect the entire world. It is orchestrated by a president and Congress who are convinced that the future of the economy lies in science and technology. Under normal circumstances, this might lead to modest budget increases for research, and a supportive environment for high-tech business 鈥� warm glows all round. But with the economy in a state of collapse, and long-neglected problems with energy, climate, health and infrastructure coming home to roost, these are extraordinary times, and they have prompted extraordinary action.
President Barack Obama has decided to deluge research and high-tech projects with unprecedented levels of funding (see 鈥淥bama makes biggest gamble on science in history鈥�). It is a thrilling prospect for anyone who recognises science as a force for progress. But there are perils. The American public is notoriously impatient. If the scientists can鈥檛 quickly demonstrate the benefits of all the tax dollars they will be getting, they had better watch out 鈥� witness the ire directed at bank executives perceived to have squandered multibillion-dollar bail-outs. Merely promising that the fruits of innovation will be harvested years down the line won鈥檛 cut it.
The trickle-down effect of high-wage, high-tech jobs into spending in malls and restaurants is just the start. There is in fact good evidence that spending on science can be as effective an economic stimulus as spending on conventional infrastructure. According to , $20 billion spent on research and scientific infrastructure should create and retain 402,000 jobs. Another analysis suggests that broadband networks are almost as effective as roads and bridges at creating short-term jobs, and probably better in the long run. Scientists must also understand that unprecedented funding brings unprecedented accountability. They really do need to deliver clean energy, cheap and effective medicines, and so on.
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Obama鈥檚 agenda is so audacious that it is inevitable that some aspects will misfire. Plans to use research into evidence-based medicine to cut wasteful treatments will be particularly hard to deliver. That brings a real danger that the science boom will dissolve into a bust. If the stimulus isn鈥檛 backed by sustained investment, scientists will join the unemployment lines.
Other leading economies face pitfalls too. In the UK, for example, the prime minister, Gordon Brown, has matched Obama in terms of pro-science rhetoric, but there is no sign of a flood of new funding for British science. If Obama鈥檚 gamble pays off, then the UK and other nations will wish they had made a similar bet. America鈥檚 brain gain will become their brain drain.
鈥淚f Obama鈥檚 gamble pays off, then the UK and other nations will wish they had made a similar bet鈥�