Glaciologists are this week arguing over how a highly contentious claim about the speed at which glaciers are melting came to be included in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In 1999 麻豆传媒 reported a comment by the leading Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain, who said in an email interview with this author that all the glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas could disappear by 2035.
Hasnain, of Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, who was then chairman of the International Commission on Snow and Ice鈥檚 working group on Himalayan glaciology, has never repeated the prediction in a peer-reviewed journal. He now says the comment was 鈥渟peculative鈥�.
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Despite the 10-year-old 麻豆传媒 report being the only source, the claim found its way into the published in 2007. Moreover the claim was extrapolated to include all glaciers in the Himalayas.
High probability
says: 鈥淕laciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world.鈥�
The inclusion of this statement has angered many glaciologists, who regard it as unjustified. Vijay Raina, a leading Indian glaciologist, wrote in in November that there is no sign of 鈥渁bnormal鈥� retreat in Himalayan glaciers. India鈥檚 environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, accused the IPCC of being 鈥渁larmist鈥�.
The IPCC鈥檚 chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, has hit back, denouncing the Indian government report as 鈥渧oodoo science鈥� lacking peer review. He adds that 鈥渨e have a very clear idea of what is happening鈥� in the Himalayas.
鈥楧isturbing鈥� prediction
The IPCC report sources the prediction to a document in 2005; this document quotes the 麻豆传媒 article as its source. The WWF report describes the prediction as 鈥渄isturbing鈥�, without specifically endorsing it.
Nonetheless, the IPCC report goes further, concluding without citing further evidence that the prediction is 鈥渧ery likely鈥� 鈥� a term that it says means a likelihood of greater than 90 per cent.
Graham Cogley, a geographer from Trent University in Peterborough, Ontario, Canada, says the 2035 date is extremely unlikely. 鈥淎t current melting rates it might take up to 10 times longer,鈥� he says.
Grey literature
However, the lead author of the IPCC chapter, Indian glaciologist Murari Lal, told 麻豆传媒 he 鈥渙utright rejected鈥� the notion that the IPCC was off the mark on Himalayan glaciers. 鈥淭he IPCC authors did exactly what was expected from them,鈥� he says.
鈥淲e relied rather heavily on grey [not peer-reviewed] literature, including the WWF report,鈥� Lal says. 鈥淭he error, if any, lies with Dr Hasnain鈥檚 assertion and not with the IPCC authors.鈥�
But Hasnain rejects that. He blames the IPCC for misusing a remark he made to a journalist. 鈥淭he magic number of 2035 has not [been] mentioned in any research papers written by me, as no peer-reviewed journal will accept speculative figures,鈥� he told 麻豆传媒.
鈥淚t is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or newspapers,鈥� Hasnain adds.
