麻豆传媒

HAWAII should prepare for an increasing number of cyclones as a result of global warming, a modelling study predicts.

About 85 tropical cyclones form each year, mostly over the western and eastern Pacific, including the Philippines, southern China and Mexico. Only one or two hit Hawaii every decade.

of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu used two climate models to forecast cyclone formation. When he factored in the impact of global warming, he found that by the end of this century, the frequency of tropical cyclones will have fallen by 31 per cent over south-east Asia and grown by 65 per cent over the north central Pacific (, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045124).

He says this may be driven by an El Ni帽o-like effect which will raise sea surface temperatures more in the east and central Pacific than in the west, creating conditions that are perfect for cyclone formation.