The Big Apple is cooking: climate change will increase the number of temperature-related deaths within decades.
A warmer climate means more extremely hot days in summer, and fewer extremely cold days in winter, meaning people are more likely to die in summer than they used to be, and less so in winter.
Radley Horton of Columbia University in New York and colleagues have now calculated the net effect. They matched daily temperature data for Manhattan with death rates between 1982 and 1999 to estimate how sensitive the city鈥檚 population is to temperatures, then used future temperature forecasts to estimate future death rates. In all their 16 models, temperature-related deaths increased almost immediately (Nature Climate Change, ).
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Death tolls rose by roughly six per cent by 2020, by 10 to 15 per cent by 2050, and up to 30 per cent by 2080.
The biggest increases occurred in May and September. According to Horton鈥檚 calculations, death tolls could roughly double by 2080 during these months. 鈥淭oday New York doesn鈥檛 think about heatwaves in those months, but in the future they may be part of the summer,鈥� says Horton.
New York is already taking action to protect its citizens from extreme heat, as part of a broader initiative called PlaNYC that aims to protect the city from climate change. The city is planting extra trees, painting roofs white and creating 鈥渃ooling centres鈥� where people can escape the worst of the heat. Many other mid-latitude cities will need to adapt, says Horton. 鈥淓fforts under way in New York City are a valuable example.鈥�
Green areas like parks act as 鈥渙ases of cool鈥� where people can go to escape the heat, says Andrew Pullin of Bangor University, UK. One recent study (Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, ) suggests that the cooling effect of a park extends a few hundred metres into the surrounding built-up area, so parks might help keep the entire city cool.
Journal reference: Nature Climate Change,
