麻豆传媒

ON AN unseasonably warm Sunday morning in London, I do something I haven鈥檛 done for more than 30 years: get up and go to church. For an hour and a half, I sing, listen to readings, enjoy moments of quiet contemplation and throw a few coins into a collection. At the end there is tea and cake, and a warm feeling in what I guess must be my soul.

This is like hundreds of congregations taking place across the city this morning, but with one notable exception: there is no god.

Welcome to the , a 鈥済odless congregation鈥� held every other week in Conway Hall, home of the world鈥檚 oldest free-thought organisation. On the day I went there were at least 200 people in the hall; sometimes as many as 600 turn up.

Founded by comedians Sanderson Jones and Pippa Evans in 2013, the Sunday Assembly aims to supply some of the uplifting features of a religious service without any of the supernatural stuff. Atheism is also off the agenda: the Assembly is simply about celebrating being alive. 鈥淥ur mission is to help people live this one life as fully as possible,鈥� says Jones.

The Assembly鈥檚 wider goal is 鈥渁 godless congregation in every town, city and village that wants one鈥�. And many do: from a humble start in a deconsecrated church in London, there are now 28 active assemblies in the UK, Ireland, US and Australia. Jones now works full-time to fulfil the demand for more; he expects to have 100 by the end of this year.

The people I joined on that sunny Sunday are a small part of the world鈥檚 fastest-growing religious identity 鈥� the 鈥渘ones鈥�. Comprising non-believers of all stripes, from convinced atheists like me to people who simply don鈥檛 care about religion, they now number more than some major world religions.

In London, admittedly, they are nothing special. The UK is one of the least religious countries in the world, with .

But elsewhere, their rise is both rapid and remarkable. A decade ago, more than three-quarters of the world鈥檚 population identified themselves as religious. Today, less than 60 per cent do, and in about a quarter of countries the nones are now a majority. Some of the biggest declines have been seen in countries where religion once seemed part of the furniture, such as Ireland. In 2005, 69 per cent of people there said they were religious; now only 47 per cent do (see diagram).

鈥淲e have a powerful secularisation trend worldwide,鈥� says , a psychologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. 鈥淭here are places where secularisation is making huge inroads: western and northern Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and China.鈥�

鈥� a deeply Christian country 鈥� the number of people expressing 鈥渘o religious affiliation鈥� has risen from 5 per cent in 1972 to 20 per cent today; among people under 30, that number is closer to a third.

That鈥檚 not to say that they have all explicitly rejected religion; only 13 per cent of people around the world say they are 鈥渃ommitted鈥� atheists. Even so, it means there are almost a billion atheists globally. Only Christianity and Islam can claim more adherents. And alongside them are another billion and a half who, for whatever reason, don鈥檛 see themselves as religious.

A century ago, these trends would have seemed inevitable. The founders of sociology, and , expected scientific thinking to lead to the gradual erosion and eventual demise of religion. They saw the rise of humanist, rationalist and free thought organisations in western Europe as the start of a secular revolution.

Born to believe

It didn鈥檛 quite work out that way. Although parts of western Europe, Australia, Canada and New Zealand did secularise after the second world war, the rest of the world remained resolutely god-fearing. Even the official atheism of the communist bloc didn鈥檛 really take hold at grass-roots level.

If anything, at the end of the 20th century, religion seemed to be resurgent. Fundamentalist movements were gaining ground around the world; Islam was becoming a powerful political force; the US remained stubbornly religious. Increasingly, secular Europe looked like an outlier.

Now, though, secularisation is back in business. 鈥淭he past 20 years has seen a precipitous decline in religiosity in all societies,鈥� says , a sociologist at Pitzer College in Claremont, California. 鈥淲e are seeing religion withering across the board. Yes, there are pockets of increased fundamentalism, but overall we are seeing rising rates of secularism in societies where we have never seen it before 鈥� places like Brazil, Ireland, even in Africa.鈥�

So is the 19th century prediction of a godless world finally coming true? Is it possible that one day the majority of people will see themselves as non-religious? And if that happens, will the world be a better place?

To answer these questions, we need to know why people believe in god in the first place.

For many, the answer is obvious: because god exists. Whether or not that is the case, it illustrates something very interesting about the nature of religious belief. To most people, probably the vast majority who have ever lived, belief in god is effortless. Like being able to breathe or learning one鈥檚 native language, faith in god is one of those things that comes naturally.

Why is that? In recent years, cognitive scientists have produced a comprehensive account of the human mind鈥檚 receptivity to religious ideas. Called cognitive by-product theory, it holds that certain features of human psychology that evolved for non-religious reasons also create fertile ground for god. As a result, when people encounter religious stories and claims, they find them intuitively appealing and plausible.

For example, our early ancestors were regularly on the dinner menu of predators, and so evolved a 鈥渉ypersensitive agency detection device鈥� 鈥� a fancy name for an assumption that events in the environment are caused by sentient beings, or agents. That makes evolutionary sense: when any rustle in the bushes might be a prowling predator it is better to err on the side of caution. But it also primes us to assume agency where there is none. That, of course, is a central claim of most religions: that an unseen agent is responsible for doing and creating things in the world.

Existential comfort

Humans have evolved other quirks that encourage the spread of religious beliefs. Notions of a benevolent personal god, higher purpose and an afterlife, for example, help people to manage the existential dread and uncertainty that are part of being human.

We also have a tendency to imitate high-status individuals 鈥� think of modern celebrity culture 鈥� and to conform to social norms, both of which promote the spread and maintenance of belief. We are especially impressed by what social scientists call CREDs or 鈥渃redibility-enhancing displays鈥� 鈥� costly and extravagant acts of faith such as fasting, self-flagellation or martyrdom.

Finally, people who think they are being watched tend to behave themselves and cooperate more. Societies that chanced on the idea of supernatural surveillance were likely to have been more successful than those that didn鈥檛, further spreading religious ideas.

Taken together, the way our minds work makes us naturally receptive to religious ideas and extremely likely to acquire them when we encounter them. Once humans stumbled on the idea of god, it spread like wildfire.

Cognitive by-product theory is a very successful account of why humans gravitate towards religious ideas. However, it has also been turned on the opposite problem: if belief in god comes so easily, why are there atheists?

Until quite recently, it was widely assumed that people had to reason their way to atheism: they analysed the claims of religion and rejected them on the grounds of implausibility. This explained why atheism was a minority pursuit largely practised by more educated people, and why religion was so prevalent and durable. Overcoming all of those evolved biases, and continuing to do so, requires hard cognitive work.

This 鈥渁nalytical atheism鈥� is clearly an important route to irreligion and might explain some of the recent increase in secularity. It certainly flourishes in places where people are exposed to science and other analytical systems of thought. But it is by no means the only flavour of irreligion. In the US, for example, among the 20 per cent of people who say they have no religious affiliation, only about 1 in 10 say they are atheists; the vast majority, 71 per cent, are 鈥渘othing in particular鈥�.

鈥淭here are many pathways and motivations for becoming atheist,鈥� says Norenzayan. 鈥淒isbelief does not always require hard cognitive effort.鈥�

So if people aren鈥檛 explicitly rejecting religious claims, what is causing them to abandon god? To Norenzayan, the answer lies in some of the other psychological biases that make religious ideas so easy to digest.

One of the main motivations for abandoning god is that people increasingly don鈥檛 need the comfort that belief in god brings. Religion thrives on existential angst: where people feel insecure and uncertain, religion provides succour. But as societies become more prosperous and stable, this security blanket becomes less important.

By this reckoning it is no coincidence that the world鈥檚 least religious countries also tend to be the most secure. Denmark, Sweden and Norway, for example, are consistently rated as among the most irreligious. They are also among the most prosperous, stable and safe, with universal healthcare and generous social security.

鈥淭he world鈥檚 least religious countries are also among the most prosperous, stable and safe鈥�

Conversely, the world鈥檚 most religious countries are among its poorest. And within countries, poorer segments of society tend to be more religious, according to the .

The link is supported by laboratory studies showing that making people aware of existential threats such as pain, randomness and death temporarily strengthens their belief in god. It seems to hold in the real world too: after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand 鈥� normally a stable and safe country with corresponding low levels of religiosity 鈥� .

Norenzayan refers to the kind of atheism that exists in these places as . 鈥淭his is not so much doubting or being sceptical, but more about not caring,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey simply don鈥檛 think about religion.鈥�

Counter-intuitively, he adds, apatheism could also explain the strength of religion in the US. In comparison to other rich nations, the US has high levels of existential angst. A lack of universal healthcare, widespread job insecurity and a feeble social safety net create fertile conditions for religion to flourish.

Another important source of irreligion is 鈥渋nCREDulous atheism鈥�. That doesn鈥檛 mean incredulous as in unbelieving, but as in not being exposed to CREDs, those dramatic displays of faith. 鈥淭hese have a powerful effect on how religion is transmitted,鈥� says Norenzayan. 鈥淲here people are willing to die for their beliefs, for example, those beliefs become more contagious. When people don鈥檛 see extravagant displays, even if they are surrounded by people who claim to believe, then there is some evidence that this leads to decline of religion.鈥�

Norenzayan has yet to work out the relative importance of these different routes to atheism, partly because they are mutually reinforcing. But he says his hunch is that apatheism is the most important. 鈥淭hat is probably surprising to a lot of people who think you get atheism by analytical thinking. But I see striking evidence that as societies become more equal and there are social safety nets, secularisation follows,鈥� he says.

To some religious proponents, this is evidence that most of the 鈥渘ones鈥� aren鈥檛 really atheists at all 鈥� a claim that is backed by a recent survey from UK-based Christian think tank . It found that even as formal religion is waning in the UK, . Almost 60 per cent of adults questioned said they believed in some form of higher power or spiritual being; a mere 13 per cent agreed with the line 鈥渉umans are purely material beings with no spiritual element鈥�.

Some scientists 鈥� notably at Washington University in St Louis 鈥� have even claimed that atheism is psychologically impossible because of the way humans think. They point to studies showing, for example, that even people who claim to be committed atheists tacitly hold religious beliefs, such as the existence of an immortal soul.

To Norenzayan, this is all semantics. 鈥淟abels don鈥檛 concern me as much as psychology and behaviour. Do people say they believe in god? Do they go to a church or synagogue or mosque? Do they pray? Do they find meaning in religion? These are the variables that should interest us.鈥� By these measures, most of the nones really are irreligious, meaning atheism is much more durable and widespread than would be the case if the only route to atheism was actively rejecting religious ideas.

Nones on the run

Will the trend continue? On the face of it, it looks unlikely. If godlessness flourishes where there is stability and prosperity, then climate change and environmental degradation could seriously slow the spread of atheism. 鈥淚f there was a massive natural disaster I would expect a resurgence of religion, even in societies that are secularised,鈥� says Norenzayan. The Christchurch earthquake is a case in point.

It is also not clear that European secularisation will be replicated elsewhere. 鈥淭he path that countries take is historically contingent and there are exceptions,鈥� says Stephen Bullivant, a theologian at St Mary鈥檚 University in the UK and co-editor of The Oxford Handbook of Atheism.

Nonetheless, he says, there is widespread agreement that if prosperity, security and democracy continue to advance, secularisation will probably follow. Ireland鈥檚 shift towards irreligion coincided with its economic boom, says Michael Nugent, chairperson of . Interestingly, Ireland is showing no signs of a religious revival despite its recent economic woes, suggesting that once secularisation gets going it is hard to stop.

Ireland鈥檚 experience also suggests that the most unlikely of places can begin to turn their back on long-held beliefs. 鈥淚reland was always one of Europe鈥檚 exceptions. If it can happen there it can happen elsewhere 鈥� Poland, or even the Philippines,鈥� says Bullivant.

And then there鈥檚 the fact that the US seems to be moving away from god. The 鈥渘ones鈥� have been the fastest growing religious group there for the past 20 years, especially among young adults. One explanation for this is one of those historical contingencies: the cold war. For decades, Americans defined themselves in opposition to godless communists and atheism was seen as unpatriotic. The generation that grew up after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 are the most irreligious since records began.

Interestingly, after the cold war Russia rebounded in the other direction. In 1991, 61 per cent of Russians identified as nones; by 2008, that . But even the Russians now seem to have joined the recent secularisation trend: according to the Global Index of Religion and Atheism, only 55 per cent of people polled there in 2012 regard themselves as religious.

Bullivant thinks the secularisation trend will continue for another reason: the way religion is passed down the generations. 鈥淭he strongest predictor of whether a person grows up to be religious is whether their parents are,鈥� he says. A child whose parents are actively religious has about a 50 per cent chance of following them. A child whose parents are not has only about a 3 per cent chance of becoming religious.

鈥淚n terms of keeping people, the non-religious are doing very well indeed,鈥� says Bullivant. 鈥淚t is extremely unusual for somebody brought up in a non-religious household to join a religion, but it is not at all unusual for somebody brought up with a religious affiliation to end up as non-religious.鈥� In the UK, for every 10 people who leave the Catholic church, only one joins 鈥� usually from another Christian denomination.

Bullivant also points out that religiosity tends to be fixed by the time people reach their mid-20s. So the 30 per cent or so of young people in the US who don鈥檛 identify with any religion are unlikely to change their minds as they get older, and are likely to pass their irreligion on to their own children. 鈥淭he very fact that there is such a group, that it is quite big and that there wasn鈥檛 such a group before is an indicator of secularisation,鈥� says Bullivant.

So can the world really give up on god? 鈥淚 think it is possible,鈥� says Norenzayan, 鈥渂ecause we are seeing it happen already.鈥�

What would a world without god actually look like? One oft-voiced concern is that religion is the moral glue that holds society together, and that if you get rid of it, everything collapses. 鈥淭hat position is constantly articulated in the US 鈥� even secular people buy into it,鈥� says Zuckerman.

The evidence, however, suggests otherwise. In 2009, Zuckerman ran a global analysis comparing levels of religiosity in various countries with measures of societal health: wealth, equality, women鈥檚 rights, educational attainment, life expectancy, infant mortality, teenage pregnancy, STI rates, crime rates, suicide rates and murder rates. 鈥淥n just about every measure of societal health, the more secular a country or a state, the better it does.鈥� The same holds for the 50 US states.

That, of course, doesn鈥檛 necessarily mean that secularism creates a healthy society: perhaps the rise of apatheists is a consequence rather than a cause. 鈥淏ut it allows us to debunk the notion that religion is necessary for a healthy society,鈥� says Zuckerman.

He goes further, however, arguing that secularisation can lead to social improvements. 鈥淚 now believe there are aspects of the secular world view that contribute to healthy societies,鈥� he says. 鈥淔irst, if you believe that this is the only world and there is no afterlife, that鈥檚 going to motivate you to make it as good a place as possible. Number two is the emphasis on science, education and rational problem-solving that seems to come with the secular orientation 鈥� for example, are we going to pray to end crime in our city or are we going to look at the root causes?鈥�

It is also hard to discuss mass atheism without invoking the spectre of the Soviet Union, the Khmer Rouge, North Korea and many other regimes that suppressed or banned religion. Is there a risk that a majority secular world will be more like Stalingrad than Stockholm?

To Zuckerman, there is a very good reason to think not. 鈥淚 distinguish between coercive atheism that is imposed from above by a dictatorial regime, and organic atheism that emerges in free societies. It is in the latter that we see positive societal health outcomes.鈥�

Perhaps a more credible worry is what would happen to our physical and mental health. The past 20 years have seen a great deal of research into the benefits of being religious, and most studies claim to find a small association between religiosity, health and happiness. This is usually explained by religious people leading healthier lifestyles and having strong social support networks.

Some researchers have therefore jumped to the conclusion that if religion brings health and happiness, then atheism must come at a corresponding cost. Yet the link between religion and health is nowhere near as well established as is often claimed. A meta-analysis of 226 such studies, for example, found a . What鈥檚 more, the little research that has been done on atheists鈥� physical and psychological health found no difference between them and religious people. And at a societal level, of course, a greater proportion of atheism is associated with better public health.

But if you think an atheist world would be a paradise of rationality and reason, think again. 鈥淲hen people no longer believe in god, it doesn鈥檛 mean they don鈥檛 have intuitions that are powerfully connected to the supernatural,鈥� says Norenzayan. 鈥淓ven in societies that are majority atheist, you find a lot of paranormal belief 鈥� astrology, karma, extraterrestrial life, things that don鈥檛 have any scientific evidence but are intuitively obvious to people.鈥�

That, however, isn鈥檛 necessarily a bad thing. 鈥淚t is important to appreciate that there are powerful psychological reasons why we have religion,鈥� says Norenzayan. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 just say 鈥榠t is a superstition, we need to get rid of it鈥�. We need to find alternative solutions to the deep and perennial problems of life that religion tries to solve. If societies can do that I think atheism is a viable alternative.鈥�

Godless congregations like the Sunday Assembly can help, by serving the needs of nones who yearn for a sense of community and a common moral vision. They also articulate secular values and get the message across that godless societies can be healthy ones. If that means accepting a certain level of new-agey irrationality, then so be it.

All of which adds up to a vision of an atheist future rather different from the coldly rational one that Weber and Durkheim 鈥� and more recently Richard Dawkins and the other New Atheists 鈥� envisaged. A bit happy-clappy, a bit spiritual, driven more by indifference to religion rather than hostility to it 鈥� but a good society nonetheless. In fact, a society not unlike modern Britain. And as I walk back to my car on a sunny Sunday morning, I can鈥檛 help feeling that wouldn鈥檛 be so bad.

Leader: 鈥�God not-botherers: Religious apathy reigns鈥�

This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淟osing our religion鈥�