THE International Space Station just got a bit bigger. Last week, a SpaceX rocket delivered an inflatable fabric habitat to the station, the first room added since 2011. A few days later, the firm behind it, Bigelow Aerospace, announced plans for its own orbiting platform by 2020.
Bigelow isn鈥檛 alone in eyeing up expansion into low Earth orbit. The next decade will see a realignment of space real estate, as China, Russia, the US and private firms all vie for position. As with any space flight endeavour, ambitions, timescales and cold hard cash don鈥檛 always sync up, meaning some plans may not come to pass, but it鈥檚 clear that the next space race will be about occupation, not exploration. Whoever wins will be light years ahead in pursuit of the ultimate goal: solar system dominance.
So what will this brave new world look like? Will there be just one dominant power up there or lots of mini stations all hoping to attract research and tourist cash?
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The ISS has been the only show in low Earth orbit since it launched in 1998. The countries behind it have pledged to keep it running until 2024, but funds could dry up sooner, leaving the $100 billion station to plunge into the sea. Or maybe not 鈥� Russia has announced plans to and form its own outpost.
Then there鈥檚 China. The country isn鈥檛 an ISS partner and current US legislation prevents NASA from cooperating with it. Later this year, the Chinese National Space Administration intends to launch its Tiangong-2 space laboratory, the second step in China鈥檚 plan to build a full-blown space station in the 2020s.
鈥淲e know China will have a station, so we think it鈥檚 important that the US and its international partners continue to have a presence in low Earth orbit,鈥� says Bigelow鈥檚 Mike Gold, based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
鈥淲e are going to see a realignment of space real estate. The next space race will be about occupation鈥�
Bigelow hopes to provide it. It wants to kick on from its Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM), which is now attached to the ISS, with its next generation B330 modules. The firm says it will launch two of these by 2020, perhaps attaching one to the ISS if NASA approves, otherwise leaving them free-floating. Eventually, the company wants to join multiple modules together.
Private space travel
鈥淭he vision is to deploy B330 habitats to form a private space station that will be the successor to the International Space Station,鈥� says Gold.
But to realise this ambition, Bigelow must first wait for private crewed spacecraft to come online 鈥� there is little point in building a station if no one can get to it. At the moment, buying a seat on a Russian Soyuz craft is the only way for people to reach space, but NASA is supporting the development of new spacecraft by Boeing and SpaceX, which are due to begin launching next year.
Others think the route to a commercial station will be more gradual. 鈥淚 foresee companies building commercial components to the ISS, and then one day building their own space station,鈥� says Brad Kohlenberg of Made in Space, a Californian firm that operates 3D printers on board the ISS.
Depending on how many commercial modules have been attached to the ISS by the time it comes down, companies could potentially reconfigure them into a mini ISS, he says. Alternatively, they could work with the Russians, who want to keep their modules in orbit as part of a facility called the Orbital Piloted Assembly and Experiment Complex, or OPSEK.
NASA will support firms building new platforms, but won鈥檛 want to fund them, says Joel Montalbano, NASA鈥檚 deputy manager for the ISS. 鈥淣ASA can be part of it, but we wouldn鈥檛 be that anchor tenant.鈥�
Can all of this happen before the ISS comes down? There is no engineering reason the ISS couldn鈥檛 stay up beyond 2024, assuming countries are willing to stump up the funds. If commercial firms aren鈥檛 ready to take over by then, perhaps the ISS could keep running, says Montalbano.
If none of this comes to pass, crewed dominance in space could fall to China. The country has long planned to go it alone, says Dean Cheng, who studies Chinese space policy at the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC. 鈥淭he Chinese were interested in a space station long before we had ISS operating, and their manned space programme has proceeded in line with that,鈥� he says.
China is following the same trajectory as NASA and Russia, initially launching single-module stations before graduating to a multi-part space station. Its efforts began in 2011 with the launch of space laboratory Tiangong-1. The craft was visited by crews of three astronauts in 2012 and 2013, each staying just two weeks, and is now dormant, but remains in orbit.
China is gearing up for a slightly larger follow-up. Tiangong-2 is scheduled to launch later this year, with a two-person crew going to visit by the end of the year for a month. Many details of the new space lab are under wraps, but Cheng thinks the agency will use it as a stepping stone to learn skills for building its space station in the 2020s (see diagram).
鈥淐hina could become the dominant space power. It has long planned to go it alone鈥�
When China does move to construct its larger station, current plans suggest it will have three modules, two robotic arms and large solar arrays, making it appear much like a scaled-down ISS. It will also be accompanied by an orbiting space telescope that is more advanced than NASA鈥檚 Hubble, according to . Keeping the telescope close to the station will make it much easier to repair, suggesting China has learned from NASA鈥檚 problems with Hubble.
It will be interesting to see how the Chinese react as the private sector establishes a larger foothold in space. 鈥淭hey may very well choose to join in, opening up a series of Tiangongs managed as hotels. Or you could see them cracking down on this, because space is very much a national security concern for the Chinese,鈥� says Cheng.
Depending on how the economics, technology and politics come together, we could be set for a future with two, three or even more space stations in orbit. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 need to just have one space station, it鈥檚 like having just one university,鈥� says Chris Lewicki of Planetary Resources, a Washington-based company with plans to mine asteroids for in-space building materials.
鈥淎s we create the capability to send more and more people into space, we鈥檒l of course want to go somewhere,鈥� says Lewicki. 鈥淚 certainly think we鈥檒l see commercial entities like Bigelow and others start to create destinations.鈥�
And with a firmer foothold in orbit around Earth, space agencies and companies will be ready to make the next leap, and perhaps finally begin the wider exploration of the solar system. NASA, for example, is already discussing sending people to Mars or building a space station that orbits the moon.
鈥淥ur technology is destination agnostic, whether you鈥檙e going to the moon, an asteroid or Mars,鈥� says Gold. 鈥淲e鈥檙e supportive and hopeful for any kind of activity in space that requires humans, because humans always have to have a place to live.鈥�
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淧ower play starts for next-gen space stations鈥�
