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India is in the grip of a severe drought as a result of two successive weak monsoons and a searing heatwave. Its reservoirs dipped to less than a fifth of their total capacity in May, and are estimated to be affected in some way.

Reports of parched, cracked soils, and desperate migration from Marathwada in the west of the country – one of the worst-hit regions – are at odds with the country’s image as an emerging economic and technological power, aspiring towards .

The hope is that this year’s monsoon, due to arrive in the first week of June, will turn things around. But many see the drought as a wake-up call for India, and a sign of things to come for the region as global warming takes hold.

India’s economy still depends largely on monsoon rains, with two-thirds of its agricultural land fed by rain. Other parts of the country are but this is , leading to and declining water tables.

The droughts of the 1980s and 1990s were those of poor India, says Sunita Narain, director general of the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi. “The 2016 drought is of a richer, water-guzzling India.”

An analysis carried out for the World Bank in 2013 found that . If global average temperatures rise by 2 ^oC, it predicts that unprecedented spells of hot weather will occur far more frequently and cover much larger areas. The monsoon will become highly unpredictable and droughts are expected to be more frequent. “Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of extreme heat by the 2040s,” it says.

Not so drought-proof

India’s attempts to get its agriculture into a state where drought has no negative impact on the economy – are, at best, patchy. In 2013, the country signed up to . The aim was to develop strategies for drought mitigation and management.

India has schemes for drought-hit farmers but there has been little take-up as many are too poor to pay the premium, and even if they do, the process required to verify crop losses can be too cumbersome to complete. Similarly, rainwater harvesting schemes are neglected despite policies to make them mandatory.

And while experts recommend that the government should encourage farmers to grow crops that need little water such as hardy millets, water-guzzling crops like sugarcane to keep the politically powerful sugar barons on side.

There have been no serious attempts to utilise local crop diversity, conserve water or recharge depleted aquifers, says Rajeswari Raina at the National Institute for Science, Technology and Development Studies in New Delhi. “There is just no political will to move away from an [intensive irrigation-driven] agriculture system.”

Like its people, the Indian government, which has been , is praying that this year’s monsoon will set things right. The rains are . But this won’t give impoverished farmers the money they need to buy seeds or livestock, and it may not do much for the water table – if the soils are so damaged that their ability to absorb the heavy rains is hampered.

Either way, if a rising economic power like India can’t manage its crops and water, it doesn’t bode well for the region in a future, warmer world.