麻豆传媒

THIS has been a year that will live long in the memory, mostly for the wrong reasons. More than 70 million people have fallen ill with a virus that we didn鈥檛 even know existed this time last year. More than a million and a half have died. Millions more are struggling with the long shadow of the disease.

At the same time, daily life for huge numbers of people changed to an extent that few would have thought feasible as we wassailed towards the last festive period. The way many people work, travel, shop, eat, entertain themselves and socialise have all been radically disrupted and re-engineered, at least temporarily.

It is easy to forget how quickly this has all happened. Just under a year ago, we ran an online story about a 鈥渕ysterious pneumonia鈥� circulating in China, which at that point looked like a 鈥渟mall earthquake in Chile, not many dead鈥� type of story. A month later, we were nervously tearing up our plans for the magazine and putting coronavirus on the cover 鈥� the first of 15 coronavirus cover stories so far. Was it really such a big story? Would readers care? Yes, and yes.

Plenty of people had predicted that a pandemic was coming. Even so, it took a while for it to dawn on the world that this was really it. In part, this was because the coronavirus kept springing surprises. At first, it looked like a standard respiratory virus, but soon revealed its true identity as a stealth operator and attacker of multiple organ systems. The level of asymptomatic spread wasn鈥檛 in the textbook, nor were the many different manifestations of the disease.

But science stepped up and, after a long 11 months in the trenches, there is light. Vaccines aren鈥檛 panaceas, but they are our best 鈥� indeed our only 鈥� shot at returning to normality. Without a vaccine, we are fated to endure wave after wave of infections and reinfections, and repeated lockdowns. With one, we have a genuine exit strategy. The onus is now on scientists, medics and politicians to fathom out how best to navigate us towards it.

Of these three groups, two have had a good war and one a frequently lousy one. It is worth spending a moment over the holiday period to remember the tireless, courageous, selfless and brilliant efforts of medics and scientists all over the world. Spare a thought especially for the many thousands 鈥� the number still isn鈥檛 certain 鈥� of healthcare workers who have died on the covid-19 front line.

As for our political leaders, for many, there is much room for improvement. One thing they must learn is that if you fail to prepare, you are preparing to fail. And they should be aware that the next pandemic could be worse. Back in 2015, we ran a feature about a future pandemic. It included a checklist of the four attributes a virus needs to be truly devastating: high fatality rate, rapid spread, infectiousness before symptoms, and no vaccine. 鈥淲e are yet to face a virus that ticks all the boxes,鈥� we said.

We still haven鈥檛. The fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is mercifully quite low. And the fourth box is being rapidly unticked.

We struck it lucky in other ways too. The virus has other weaknesses in its armour. Its genome is remarkably stable, so we haven鈥檛 faced waves of mutants that could have been more aggressive. It also turned out to be a fairly routine challenge for vaccine development, which isn鈥檛 always the case. That isn鈥檛 to downplay the skill and speed of the vaccine developers, but they could have had a much harder job.

鈥淭he fact that a vaccine exists already will go down as 2020鈥檚 crowning achievement. That process has never taken less than four years before鈥�

Indeed, the fact that a vaccine exists already will go down as 2020鈥檚 crowning achievement. It took just 324 days from the viral genome being sequenced to the first emergency approval of a fully tested vaccine. That process has never taken less than four years before.

Already, however, the feared drumbeat of vaccine nationalism is growing louder. What we need is for countries to start working together towards enforcing equitable global access to the vaccine based on need, not nationality. Unfortunately, that looks like a distant prospect as rich countries predictably hoover up more than their fair share of doses.

That is a blot on the horizon. But there is no doubt that we go into 2021 with brighter prospects than we had any right to expect in March, when the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. Hard yards still lie ahead and the events of 2020 reveal the folly of making predictions. But we can allow ourselves a muted holiday cheer. And three rousing ones for science.