IT MAY be a new year, but the same old question lingers: when will life get back to normal? This dominates the opening pages of our preview of 2021 (see 鈥�2021 preview: How soon will a covid-19 vaccine return life to normal?鈥�).
A better question, though, is what kind of normal should we be striving for now? Because, as any climate scientist will tell you, the old one was doing us few favours in the long term. This is the focus of another part of our preview.
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It is understandable and right that governments are taking steps to get economies back on their feet, as mass vaccination programmes get going, hopefully marking the beginning of the end of the pandemic. What is key now is what kind of recovery politicians opt for, because this is what is going to decide our collective climate future.
The UN estimates a truly green recovery worldwide 鈥� one in which renewable energy and electric cars are turbocharged 鈥� could shave 25 per cent off pre-covid expectations for global emissions in 2030. Researchers have estimated a green stimulus could avoid 0.3掳C of warming by 2050, a huge number in climate change terms.
The pandemic could, in its way, help here. The disaster has shown the importance of following the science. It has also spurred a public thirst for more scientific information.
鈥淔ailure to tackle emissions will lead to a new normal that no one wants 鈥� a climate crisis that dwarfs covid-19鈥�
In July, a landmark report from the UN climate science panel, the IPCC, will set out the very latest understanding of climate change science. Let us hope that the world listens and follows that science.
That means, collectively, countries halving emissions by 2030, and cutting them to net zero by mid-century. Failure to do this could lead to a new normal that none of us wants 鈥� a climate crisis that completely dwarfs covid-19.
Fortunately, any new-found faith in science aside, we do enter 2021 with some positive tailwinds. Three big emitters, the EU, China and US, have all committed to producing new plans this year for reining in emissions by 2030.
Presuming that fears of gathering in public recede this year, pressure from climate-striking teenagers and others may also prove crucial in holding our leaders鈥� feet to the fire.
The long and the short of it, though, is: we can succeed, and we must.
