Tensions continue to rise between Russia and the West, as Russian president Vladimir Putin mobilises his troops on the border of Ukraine, but in 2022 wars arenāt only fought on a physical battlefield. Russia, Ukraine and the latterās Western allies have all built up the capability to launch huge state-sponsored cyberattacks. Are we lurching towards the worldās biggest cyberwar?
Western authorities certainly seem fearful of potential cyberattacks. The UKās National Cyber Security Centre to improve their cyber defences on 22 February, though declined to elaborate further when asked by Ā鶹“«Ć½.
There are similar warnings in the US. On 16 February, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency that provide services to US armed forces to be on the lookout for an increased number of attempts to break into their IT systems. That followed a from the US Department of Homeland Security warning that āRussia maintains a range of offensive cyber tools that it could employ against US networksā. In early February, the European Central Bank also against cyberattacks.
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Part of the risk to these nations isnāt from a direct Russian attack on IT infrastructure outside Ukraine ā though that could happen ā but instead an attack on Ukrainian IT affecting Western businesses. Fortune 500 companies rely on Ukraineās IT outsourcing sector, according to Ukraineās Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
āWeāve seen in the past that Russia has the intent and capability to cause major disruption through cyberoperations,ā says at the Royal United Service Institute, a UK think tank. Harvard Universityās Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs places Russia fourth in its , behind the US, China and UK.
Russia has at least three military units within the GRU, Russiaās military intelligence agency, that are capable of launching cyberattacks, according to for members of the US Congress in February 2022. Two of those units ā Unit 26165 and Unit 74455 ā were responsible for attacking political campaign servers and stealing documents and emails that were used to derail Hillary Rodham Clintonās attempt to become US president in 2016.
In October 2020, the US Department of Justice of members of Russiaās Unit 74455Ā for their connections to a year-long cyberattack against Ukraine between 2015 and 2016. Unit 74455 has also been linked by US authorities to attacks against Georgia in 2018 and 2019 ā which Russia has previously sought to bring under its influence ā and Ā the 2017 NotPetya attack against Ukraine, which caused widespread disruption to IT systems worldwide. āItās the NotPetya case that fuelled a lot of fears about spillover, either intentionally or unintentionally,ā says MacColl.
Russian cyber forces have been working against Ukraine since 2014, when Russia last launched a landgrab against the country, says the Ukrainian government. In the first 10 months of 2021, Ukraine was bombarded with , with the government again pointing the finger at Russia. In the past few weeks, whatās believed to be distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack in Ukraineās history was launched. It took down many of Ukraineās banks and government departments. The UK and US governments the attack to Russiaās GRU.
Ukraineās allies are mustering cybersecurity forces to repel Russian attacks. On 22 February, the Cyber Rapid Response Team, led by Lithuaniaās Ministry of Defence, was .
Some nations may go beyond defence. UK defence minister Ben Wallace on 21 February that a long-planned offensive cyberattack agency, the National Cyber Force, had āalready been establishedā and was growing in size. While Wallace said he couldnāt comment on actions it could launch, he added: āI am a soldier and I was always taught that the best part of defence is offence.ā The UK Ministry of Defence declined to expand when asked by Ā鶹“«Ć½.
āPeople at a senior level in Western governments have for a decade or more been calling for calibrated cyberattack options to respond to both kinetic and cyber incoming attacks,ā says , former head of the UK governmentās Strategic Horizons Unit.
Clearly, all of this is pointing to digital attacks being a big factor in the Russian conflict, but will it be a massive cyberwar? Experts think not. āFor the moment it seems that most such incursions are considered digital espionage and sabotage, more so than full-out conflict,ā says at the University of Malta. Any attacks by the UK wouldnāt be against Russian civilian infrastructure, says MacColl. āIt will be about degrading their ability to conduct cyberattacks against us.ā
Venema also believes international law will limit Western attacks on civilian networks. āThose countries who consider the international legal order as worthy to uphold will always apply human rights law and principles such as distinction between military targets and civilian infrastructure when acting,ā she says. There is also the risk of escalating the conflict. āYou need to consider what happens when you release such a weapon,ā says Venema. āAfter all, it can be used against you in the future.ā
