SOMETIMES it seems like the furthest a politician can think into the future is tomorrow’s front pages. job is to break that vicious cycle of short-termism. As the future generations commissioner for Wales, she advocates for the interests of people who will come of age in the future or have yet to be born.
Created in 2016, her position was a world first. But now, as she nears the end of her term in office, the idea of having a political advocate for people of the future is catching on, with several other nations and even the UN planning to follow suit.
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Howe’s role is limited to advising the Welsh government, but she has had a considerable impact. Â鶹´«Ă˝ caught up with her to find out how you go about advocating for unborn people and how evidence can help.
Graham Lawton: How did your unique job come about?
Sophie Howe: In 2010, the administration in Wales had a national conversation with our citizens to ask: what is the Wales you want to leave to your children and grandchildren? The result was a piece of legislation called the , which was passed in 2015. It sets out seven long-term well-being goals. We want a healthy Wales, a resilient Wales, a prosperous Wales, a more equal Wales, a Wales with vibrant culture and cohesive communities, and a globally responsible Wales. The act also established an independent commissioner to oversee implementation.
That’s you! What does your job involve?
I give advice and guidance on the sorts of policies that would take us closer towards meeting those goals. I’m like the government’s conscience saying: “Hang on, how have you thought about future generations when you’re doing that?” You’re going to have to explain how the decisions you want to make are taking us in that direction. I call it the good ancestor test. I can’t force politicians to listen to me. But I can make powerful arguments based on the legislation that they themselves have passed.
What time scales do you work to?
The legislation says we should be looking at least 10 years ahead, but my team and I say that we should be looking to the next generation.
That is quite a rare mindset in a world dominated by electoral cycles and annual reports.
That is the huge challenge, isn’t it? When you talk about legislating for the well-being of future generations, everyone says, “yes, of course we want to do that”. But actually doing things that are right for the future often requires us to take difficult decisions. We probably need to do things like take money away from hospitals and invest it in preventative services.
Isn’t that the sort of tough call that governments are supposed to make already?
This is one of the big problems that we’ve got in governance systems across the world. If you haven’t got something that you’re working towards, things scatter off in all directions. Policies operate in silos, and we just respond to crises. In terms of the proactive things that we do, you’ve got to have a vision of a future that you want to try to create. That’s what’s lacking, right across the world.
Has your role really changed anything?
The first big test was around the Welsh government planning to spend all of its borrowing capacity to build a 13-mile [20-kilometre] stretch of motorway to deal with congestion around Newport [a city in south Wales]. I asked: can you show me how you’ve applied long-term trends and scenarios to your thinking around building a road? Because I can point to long-term trends that show declining car use, and that there’s going to have to be a change to road taxation when we move to electric vehicles. Can you explain to me how building a road is going to help us reach a low-carbon society? Can you explain how this is going to help us meet our goal of a healthier Wales, when we need to get people out of their cars travelling actively, and when we need to reduce air pollution?
I can’t force anyone to do anything. I can put forward the arguments to explain why the things I’m proposing are the right things to do to take us towards those well-being goals that the Senedd [the Welsh parliament] passed. And in the case of the motorway, they changed their mind. This eventually led to the government announcing last year a moratorium on all road building in Wales.
You must wind people up sometimes.
I think I’m a complete pain in the arse! But that’s my job. Because who else is speaking for future generations?
Does science and evidence help inform your work?
It informs my work on a daily basis, say, analysing and assessing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, or the [Welsh government’s] State of Natural Resources Report. Science is relevant in the environmental sphere, in particular, but also around automation, artificial intelligence, the demographics of the ageing population. I engage on a daily basis with experts and academia, use lots of evidence that’s already out there and often commission my own.
We also work with a range of futurologists and futures techniques. One we use quite regularly is the Three Horizons method. Horizon one is where we’re going at the moment. Where we want to be is horizon three. Horizon two is where we could practically end up if we make innovations that will take us closer towards horizon three. We’re fortunate in Wales in that we know what horizon three should look like – it’s those seven well-being goals.
Can you give us an example of how that horizons technique works?
If your mission was to decarbonise the transportation system, mass investment in electric vehicles and grants for people to buy electric vehicles would probably be sensible. If, however, as it is in Wales, your objective is not just to have a low-carbon economy, but also to have improved health, more cohesive communities and to address socio-economic disadvantage, investing in electric vehicles is not the answer because, if you’re poor, you won’t be able to afford an electric vehicle. You’d be better off investing in public transport.
What is your vision of the future like?
I could describe to you how I would want my 8-year-old daughter to be living her life when she’s my age. She’d be walking her kids to school, she’d be connected with nature immediately outside of her doorstep. She might be cycling, and she would be working a reduced working week so she is able to better balance work and family life. Technological innovations would be helping, not hindering, her life. She would be working in a job where well-being is just as important as making money. She would not be paid less than my son because we would have tackled the gender pay gap.
Does the Welsh government have enough political clout to attain these goals?
It holds a lot of the levers. But there are some areas where things the Welsh government might want to do bang up against the devolution settlement [with the UK government]. A live issue is universal basic income or UBI. I’ve been a strong advocate for it. I’ve done modelling showing how UBI could help us to reach well-being goals. And in February, the Welsh government announced pilot schemes, which will see young people leaving the care system given an unconditional income of £1600 a month. That’s really exciting. But if they wanted to roll that out further, they would have to have cooperation from [the UK government].
I understand that other nations have followed Wales’s lead or are considering it.
Countries all over the world are thinking of similar things. Gibraltar now has a future generations act, which is based on the Welsh model. There is a Scottish government commitment to a future generation act. We’re working with John Bird, the founder of The Big Issue, who’s taking a private member’s bill to do with future generations through the UK parliament. Also, significantly, we’ve done a lot of work at United Nations level. The UN system of governance is often short term and doesn’t account for the needs of younger generations. The UN secretary general recently set out a proposal for the appointment of a UN special envoy for future generations and a UN Declaration on Future Generations, and I’m part of a small group advising him on how that could work. That could be incredibly exciting because it then has the potential to trickle down to every country in the world.
