BURNING fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into Earth’s atmosphere. As the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere increase, so too do global temperatures. Beyond a given temperature limit, life on Earth becomes impossible. Stop us if you have heard this one before.
The basic science of climate change is so universally accepted that only the most fringe elements of society now deny it. Instead, there is a new group of people holding back climate action – delayers, not deniers – that have been enabled by two simple words: net zero.
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The science of net zero is also well accepted. Since releasing CO2 increases global temperatures, we must stop doing so. Until we are removing as much carbon from the atmosphere as we put in – the “net” in net zero – temperatures will rise. Many countries and companies have pledged to hit this goal by 2050.
But we cannot simply slam on the brakes at the last moment. If our carbon emissions remain net positive until 2049, hitting zero only in 2050, we will blow it.
Despite this, Shell announced last week that it plans to grow its natural gas business while committing to an earlier pledge to reach net zero by 2050, following a similar announcement by BP earlier this year (see “Shell can’t say it backs net zero while still betting on fossil fuels”). This, in the opinion of one researcher who spoke to Â鶹´«Ă˝, appeared “scientifically incoherent”.
The broader issue is that the “net” in net zero offers a tantalising cop-out. It was intended to acknowledge that some sectors will be near impossible to fully decarbonise, and must be offset. Instead, it has become the carbon equivalent of a tax wheeze. If we balance the books with carbon offsets, the thinking goes, emissions can continue to rise. Better still, if we release carbon today, we can remove it later, with technology that doesn’t yet exist at scale. For executives or politicians with an eye on the next financial quarter or electoral cycle, net zero has clear appeal.
But the atmosphere doesn’t work like that. As we face possibly the warmest year on record (see “Why 2023 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record”), it is time to go back to basics. Cut emissions. Now. Fast.
