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Extreme rainfall is increasing even more than expected as world warms

A study comparing weather records with climate model projections suggests that the latest models are underestimating how often future rainfall extremes will occur

By Michael Le Page

28 November 2023

Hurricane Harvey dropped devastating amounts of rain on Houston, Texas, in 2017

David J. Phillip/AP / Alamy

Be prepared for even more extreme rainfall events and flooding as the world warms. A study comparing what has happened so far with what climate models project has found that extreme events are happening around 50 per cent more often than predicted. This means that the climate models are also underestimating how much worse these events will become in the future.

“Extremes appear to intensify faster with global warming than the models predict,” says team member at the Potsdam Institute…

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