THE end of 2023 saw a global agreement at the COP28 climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels. In 2024, will we actually see reductions in emissions from burning oil, gas and coal? Maybe.
Certainly, political will is high. 鈥淲e are moving away from fossil fuels,鈥� said US climate envoy John Kerry just after the agreement was adopted in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not turning back. That is the future.鈥�
A key sign of whether this translates into action in 2024 will be where the fossil fuel industry invests its trillions of dollars in revenue, says at the World Resources Institute, an environmental non-profit organisation. In 2022, only around by fossil fuel companies went to clean energy, and 2023 saw several make massive bets to expand oil and gas development. Waskow says this ratio between clean energy and fossil fuel investment needs to be flipped in the next few years.
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There are no strong indications yet that fossil fuel firms are planning for this shift, though. Following the Dubai agreement, even COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who played a key role in wrangling the global deal, signalled his enthusiasm to continue. Al Jaber, who is also the chief executive of the UAE鈥檚 national oil firm, ADNOC, told The Guardian that his company would carry on investing in fossil fuels. 鈥淭he world continues to need low-carbon oil and gas and low-cost oil and gas,鈥� he said, claiming ADNOC鈥檚 fuels are 鈥渓ow carbon鈥� due to more efficient extraction methods.
Even if fossil fuel firms don鈥檛 act, we may see stronger moves from governments. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are meant to set more ambitious climate targets every five years. The next ones are due in early 2025, but some may be submitted in 2024. If the Dubai agreement has changed political thinking, we should see it here. 鈥淲hat are they going to include on shifting away from fossil fuels?鈥� says Waskow. 鈥淲hat are they going to include on renewables, transport, nature, land, forests?鈥�
These pledges are determined by national politics and circumstances, so vary widely between countries. Watch for a change of tune on coal from India as solar booms on the subcontinent, an embrace of renewable energy in many African nations and a shift in the trajectory of emissions from China as its economy slows and moves away from heavy industry. The US presidential election in November will prove consequential too. Whether or not Donald Trump is on the ballot, climate change will be.
The 2024 climate calendar will end with the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, setting up a second round of debate on the future of fossil fuels in a major oil-producing country. The other centrepiece issue in Baku is expected to be marshalling the finance to actually deliver on commitments agreed to in Dubai. These include the hundreds of billions of dollars vulnerable countries need to adapt to climate change, and the more than $4 trillion a year in clean energy investment required to make the transition away from fossil fuels more than just words on paper.
However, ultimately, only one metric matters. A real sign of progress in 2024 will be whether global greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline, says at the University of Leeds in the UK, something that must happen by 2025 to keep both the Paris Agreement鈥檚 1.5掳C and 2掳C targets on track. Some forecasters think this could happen next year, but Forster cautions that actual measurements of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will be needed to demonstrate a peak. 鈥淭he proof is in the pudding,鈥� he says.
