Our role is to think the unthinkable,” says Peter Stockel, head of mission partner engagement at the UK government’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl). Technology has always changed the character of warfare in unprecedented ways, but those tasked with keeping their nations secure against aggression by state and non-state actors must anticipate the influence of a broad range of technologies emerging now. “This is a time of hugely accelerated development,” Stockel says.
Just how the battlespace will change and the way this will influence industry and society more broadly is not well understood. So earlier this year, Â鶹´«Ă˝ CoLab, sponsored by BAE Systems, brought together leading thinkers from industry, military research and academia to discuss the technologies driving change and explore the possible futures that might emerge.
Quantum advantage
One of the most talked-about advances are so-called “quantum” technologies that take advantage of the unusual properties of the smallest kinds of matter, such as atoms, electrons and photons of light. “It gives you new capabilities,” says Ryan Hanley, General Manager of Infleqtion UK, which is now bringing advanced atom-based quantum technologies to market.
Infleqtion and other companies are already building these capabilities into useful technologies, such as quantum cryptography systems that allow perfectly secure communication; and gravitational field monitors that detect tanks, aircraft and even troops by the way they alter Earth’s gravitational field.
Another promising quantum tool is exquisitely precise atomic accelerometers, ruggedised and miniaturised for the battlefield, that act as robust and accurate navigation tools. These systems cannot be jammed, unlike GPS which is a growing problem for military and civilian operations.
Another area of innovation is the way information is processed. Information resources are now being analysed and exploited more efficiently with artificial intelligence (AI). This has proved crucial to Ukrainian forces who have combined AI with crowdsourced data and mapping software to create digital warfare tools with air defence and military intelligence abilities. “This is creating a profusion of new capabilities,” says Nick Beecroft, International Cybersecurity Lead at BAE Systems Digital Intelligence.
Robot transformation
Beecroft has been observing these developments on the ground in Ukraine and is impressed at how quickly engineers have learned to harness cutting edge digital technologies. One of the most recent AI-based developments, known as Avengers, has radically scaled-up target identification. “It offers the equivalent of a significant team of military intelligence analysts in a plug-in app,” Beecroft says.
Progress in robotics and automation is also transforming the battlespace. “Most of the magic happens where the technologies overlap,” says Nick Colosimo, head of Group Science & Technology at BAE Systems.
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Ukrainian forces are combining AI with crowdsourced data and mapping software to create whole new digital warfare tools
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One example is highly accurate sensors combined with smaller, cheaper, energy-efficient processors that run AI systems, which analyse the data being gathered. Add in cheap, powerful actuators that drive machinery such as propellers for drones, and you have a powerful foundation for long-range intelligence gathering. Then there’s the emerging techniques such as neuromorphic computing that aims to copy the efficiency of biological systems. “The growth of all of these things together means it’s easier than ever to build useful and effective robots,” Colosimo says.
At the moment, battlespace robots look like standard military hardware: drones, self-driving supply trucks and autonomous underwater vehicles, for example. But it won’t be long before they look and behave more like people, Colosimo reasons. That’s because we’ll eventually need robots that operate in our homes and factories using the same tools that we do. “It’s easier to slot a humanoid robot into that world,” he adds.
Tech convergence
All this will be enhanced by the convergences of technologies: quantum computers that use machine learning techniques, for instance. “It will allow you to perform unbelievably enormous complex problem-solving that was previously impossible,” Colosimo says.
This progress is coming faster than anyone expected. Simona Soare, a senior lecturer in Strategy and Technology at Lancaster University, has analysed NATO’s endeavours over the last few decades. She has identified an exponential increase in the complexity and functionality of software – including AI – over this time. “This pace is set to accelerate,” Soare says.
Making the most of these emerging technologies will require a radical re-think about how military technologies are developed and delivered, Soare reckons. In some instances, it might make sense to scrap existing systems rather than find ways to improve them. “Sometimes it’s easier to build a system from scratch than to work out what needs to be replaced in your existing system,” she says. This strategy also makes serendipitous breakthroughs more likely. “Someone who has a blank slate can make progress in surprising ways,” she adds.
Ensuring innovation is rapid enough to keep bad actors in check means changes in approach are needed now. “There’s a lot riding on the way we choose to adopt our ability to innovate, and whether we can adopt at the pace of warfare,” Stockel says.
Battlespace AI is now a vital resource
Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere, but how can we best put it to work? Shrewd deployment will be crucial in future conflicts, according to Mike Speirs, a senior leader at applied AI company Faculty AI.
“The 20th century was the age of industrial warfare: tanks, planes, aircraft carriers and so on,” he says. Now, data-gathering is as important as firepower. “The 21st century is the age of cognitive warfare where strategic advantage comes from superior sensing, understanding and adapting. It’s about algorithms and the speed of decision-making.”
In other words, wars are won by those who understand the battlespace better and faster, and AI will be a crucial advantage. Speirs sees a range of areas where AI will make a strategic difference. One is predictive logistics that forecast supply requirements. Then there is collaboration between human and machine intelligence, whether for weapon firing or for dealing with disinformation on social media. But perhaps most important will be working out the intent of potential adversaries. “These days there is simply too much information available for human analysts,” he says.
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