The heatwave that swept Europe last week saw many temperature records broken, leading people to ask if extraordinary June heat is the 鈥渘ew normal鈥�. Unfortunately, the truth is that we are never going to have normal in our lifetimes again 鈥� just ever more extreme heat.
Climate scientists are continually warning of the need to prepare for hotter heatwaves, worse droughts, more flooding and rising seas. During heatwaves like the one just passed, the hottest and most humid ever seen in Europe, they might even get a little media coverage. But then the weather cools, the news agenda moves on and nothing is ever done.
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We are currently on course for average global surface temperatures to rise by between 2.1掳C and 3.3掳C by 2100, and possibly even more. Even these alarming numbers are a little misleading because the oceans that cover most of the planet don鈥檛 warm as fast as the land. Average land temperatures are therefore going to go up by a lot more than the above numbers imply.
But what really matters to us is extreme weather, not the average. The projections for future extremes are already dire, and there are reasons to think that we are in for extremes even greater than those currently projected for a given level of warming. With uncertainties over the survival of the vital AMOC ocean current and the risk of a major glacier collapse, the only thing we really do know is that we must prepare for conditions far worse than Europe has just experienced.
We are on course for average global surface temperatures to rise by between 2.1掳C and 3.3掳C
It is possible to get through even worse heatwaves if all your infrastructure and systems are geared up to cope, but for most countries, this isn鈥檛 the case. The fact is, the world is changing fast and we need to change just about every aspect of our lives to adapt 鈥� our homes and offices, factories and schools, cars and trains, farms and gardens, and so on. But it isn鈥檛 happening. One day, after the tragic deaths grow too great to bear, we will ask why we did nothing to prevent them.
