A super-sized El Ni帽o weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean is set to cause a devastating drought in the Amazon, fuelling the risks of huge wildfires in a region already feared to be approaching a climate tipping point.
El Ni帽o is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise above normal, driven by shifts in trade winds. El Ni帽o tends to push up global temperatures and unleash extreme weather around the world.
Scientists monitoring the current El Ni帽o鈥檚 development say it is set to be the most intense in modern history by a large margin. Already, ocean temperatures in the Pacific are well above what would be expected for a normal El Ni帽o and are still rising, prompting warnings of extreme impacts.
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Very strong El Ni帽os like this tend to concentrate their heat close to the coast of South America, says at the Met Office, the UK鈥檚 national weather service. That, in turn, leads to more intense impacts in the region, including drought in the Amazon, he says.
The most up-to-date forecasts from the Met Office show a 鈥渢erribly dangerous [rainfall] anomaly鈥� developing over the Amazon by January, says Scaife. Hotter air temperatures are also expected in the region due to El Ni帽o.
The Amazon rainforest plays a key role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot. But severe drought can have dire consequences for wildlife and the planet. An extreme Amazon drought during the 2015-16 El Ni帽o event fuelled huge wildfires, destroying around 2.5 billion trees and plants, and emitted 495 million tonnes of CO2, .
Scientists also warn that repeated and increasingly severe droughts mean the Amazon is approaching a climate tipping point, at which the rainforest ecosystem collapses and is replaced by savannah.
at the University of Hawaii thinks the Amazon is set to suffer the most extreme El Ni帽o-induced drought on record.
Rainfall over the Amazon during June, July and August was well below average, despite the El Ni帽o phase still being in its infancy. 鈥淭he rainfall anomaly in this year, 2026, in the summertime, is already much stronger than all other events [previous large El Ni帽os]. In the Amazon you already see drought,鈥� says Li.
Assuming this year follows the pattern of previous large El Ni帽os, that rainfall pattern will only intensify over the coming months, he says.
Meanwhile, air temperatures in the Amazon region are already much higher than normal, which, coupled with drought, will create a vicious cycle, says Li. 鈥淥nce you have much less rainfall, then there鈥檚 positive feedback: no moisture, no evaporation, so the temperature gets even warmer,鈥� he says.
