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HERE’S some handy advice for 2001. When the Atlantic off America’s east coast
is warm in September, northern Europe had better watch out. Expect storms and
widespread floods in the coming winter. For the Middle East the outlook is even
worse: it could mean war. But these aren’t wild imaginings culled from the pages
of the latest Old Moore’s Alamanack. The events are all likely
consequences of one of the planet’s most complex weather phenomena—the
North Atlantic Oscillation.

The NAO is the Atlantic’s version of El Niño. It’s a see-saw flip in
weather systems that, in the depths…