THE dictator General Pervez Musharraf leads a country on the brink. As the
war in Afghanistan intensifies, he is torn between appeasing the US and
pacifying Pakistani rioters baying for his resignation. The danger his country
faces is obvious, but researchers in the US have devised a system they claim
could predict much earlier any countries approaching civil war.
Their “conflict barometer” gives a week-by-week measure of the scale of
unrest. Although the barometer’s forecasting prowess remains to be proved, its
developers say it could have presaged the slide of Algeria and Sri Lanka into
civil war. They also believe…
