Monsoon forecasting in India remains a mug’s game. As Mumbai and surrounding regions in western India conduct funerals for about 1000 victims of the area’s worst monsoon rains on record, meteorologists are mopping up after another forecasting failure.
Two months ago, government forecasters were at odds. The Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation in Bangalore forecast that monsoon rains would be 12 per cent below average in July. The government’s meteorological department in Delhi denounced its rival and forecast normal rains. Neither foresaw the cloudburst that dumped a metre of rain on Mumbai in 24 hours last week, causing…
