WHETHER you’re a candidate, a voter or just an interested observer, the home stretch of the 2008 US presidential election has been a wild ride. At the beginning of September, polls showed the Democratic hopeful, Barack Obama, dead level with his Republican rival, John McCain. Then came McCain’s surprise selection of Alaska’s folksy governor, Sarah Palin, as his running mate. The Republicans edged into the lead, but the “Palin bounce” was short-lived. Just a few weeks later, with the economy in crisis, it was Obama’s turn to pull ahead.
Arbitrary? Unpredictable? Not at all, says Allan Lichtman, a historian and…
