IS THE pace of science predictable? We may soon find out. A pair of researchers have used the rate of exoplanet finds to date to predict that the first habitable “exo-Earth” could turn up in May 2011.
In 1965, Gordon Moore, who went on to co-found Intel, observed that the number of transistors that fit on a chip doubles every two years or so, a trend now known as Moore’s law. of Harvard Medical School wants to see if “scientometrics” – the statistical study of science – can predict a rate of discovery.
He and Greg Laughlin of the University…
