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Grexit averted for now but network instability remains

24 June 2015

Âé¶¹´«Ã½. Science news and long reads from expert journalists, covering developments in science, technology, health and the environment on the website and the magazine.

Greek resolution sought (Image: Yves Herman/Reuters)

THIS is not a Grexit. The risk that Greece will default on its debts and exit the euro seems to have decreased. Greece has agreed to raise more government funds to make debt repayments due this month to the International Monetary Fund, in the hope of convincing the IMF and European Central Bank to .

But experts on the complex physical dynamics of networks say the approach fails to deal with the real problem – the structure of the underlying network. Greece plans to raise taxes without the austerity measures that triggered humanitarian hardship and shrank GDP when the crisis broke in 2012. of the University of Zurich, Switzerland, says no one is discussing how the eurozone network is structured. “Network dynamics cannot be reduced to the behaviour of single nodes,” he says. “We have to think network-wide.”

Networks with loose links between clusters of closely connected members and with a high level of equality seem most stable.

Bascompte’s team has found that a and members go “extinct” if their wealth is too unevenly distributed and competition outweighs cooperation (Interface, ).

The eurozone has remedied some of its instabilities – for example, by collectively supporting member-governments’ bonds. But a Grexit could still threaten the network.

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