On 4 October, Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a president and government. Former president Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, cannot run. But his son Fl谩vio is on the ballot. If elected, the 45-year-old senator is widely expected to govern as his father did, which is sparking fears for the future of the Amazon rainforest.
During Jair Bolsonaro鈥檚 presidency between 2019 and 2023, deforestation in the Amazon soared, reaching a 15-year-high in 2021.
鈥淲e have nothing to believe Fl谩vio will do anything differently from his father. If anything, the signs are that it鈥檚 going to be far worse,鈥� says , international policy coordinator at Brazil鈥檚 Climate Observatory. 鈥淭his is a do-or-die moment for the Amazon, really.鈥�
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Fl谩vio Bolsonaro is looking to unseat President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva, known as Lula. With the younger Bolsanaro , the environment has received during campaigning
鈥淏ut for the rest of the world, the major question here is the Amazon,鈥� says , an ecologist at Brazil鈥檚 National Institute for Amazonian Research (INPA).
The Brazilian Amazon鈥檚 4.2 million square kilometres of rainforest regulate global climate patterns and hold huge stocks of carbon 鈥� roles that are increasingly important as climate change accelerates.
鈥淭he Amazon is a key element in whether climate change escapes human control, which is very close to happening,鈥� says Fearnside. If the forest collapses, he says, the聽associated increase in emissions 鈥渨ould be the straw that breaks the camel鈥檚 back鈥�.
Annual Amazon deforestation surged from , before Bolsonaro took office, to , shortly before he departed.
Experts say the former president encouraged a wave of land-grabbing and illegal mining with his pro-development rhetoric and gutted environmental agencies so they were powerless to stop invaders.
鈥淚t鈥檚 still hard to believe what happened,鈥� says , Brazil鈥檚 environment minister between 2010 and 2016, initially under the presidency of Lula and later under the presidency of Dilma Rousseff.
Since returning to office in 2023, Lula has restored the power of environmental agencies, halving Amazon deforestation to between August 2024 and July 2025.
In a recent TV interview, Fl谩vio Bolsonaro that climate change existed, instead referring to 鈥渆xtreme climate events鈥� and 鈥渃yclical periods鈥�. And during his time as a senator, he proposed legislation that . Given this record, and his close ties to his father 鈥� and to Donald Trump 鈥� experts are concerned that his election would be followed by an increase in deforestation rates.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 know exactly what Fl谩vio Bolsonaro鈥檚 policy will be,鈥� says Teixeira. 鈥淏ut we do know he is a climate change denialist and believes environmental protections are irrelevant.鈥�
Brazil鈥檚 largest Indigenous organisation, APIB, had said it fears Fl谩vio Bolsonaro will open Indigenous lands to critical-mineral extraction, and that a Bolsonaro victory would mark 鈥溾��.
Fl谩vio Bolsonaro鈥檚 campaign also pledges zero illegal deforestation by 2029. 鈥淭here are two ways to achieve that. One is to actually stop deforestation. The other, more likely way, is to just legalise the deforestation that鈥檚 going on,鈥� says Fearnside.
A spokesperson for Lula鈥檚 campaign told 麻豆传媒 that the president鈥檚 current term was about rebuilding environmental institutions after Jair Bolsonaro鈥檚 presidency of 鈥渢otal neglect and denialism鈥�. The next term would be about 鈥渋mplementing and gaining scale鈥�, with a focus on tougher enforcement, climate adaptation and Brazil鈥檚 2035 climate targets.
The Fl谩vio Bolsonaro campaign did not respond to questions about its environmental policy.
Angelo says Brazil鈥檚 environmental organisations fear a Fl谩vio Bolsonaro government would resemble Trump鈥檚 second term. He says the political know-how gained from the Jair Bolsonaro presidency could allow them to enact laws more quickly.
Fl谩vio is also likely to face fewer political constraints than his father, not least because .
鈥淲ildcat mining would explode, deforestation would go up and everything we already had during the first Bolsonaro administration would come back even stronger,鈥� says Angelo.
Lula鈥檚 environmental policy has also been criticised.
His government has promoted major infrastructure projects such as and backed new oil exploration near the mouth of the river basin 鈥� projects that would drive deforestation and lock in fossil fuel production.
Still, the choice remains stark, says Angelo. The election will shape not only the future of the rainforest but also global climate diplomacy.
In an era of failing climate leadership, Lula oversaw new initiatives including a self-sustaining fund to pay tropical countries for keeping forests standing and a to transition away from fossil fuels.
Under Fl谩vio Bolsonaro, Angelo predicts that Brazil would and ignore its own international climate commitments.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think a fourth Lula term would be great for the environment 鈥� but it鈥檚 really our only hope of keeping the forest standing and keeping any climate policies in place,鈥� says Angelo.
